跑馬地 · 2019-12-04
第 7場
2019-12-04跑馬地第7場，Class 3，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD。由C Keane策騎、D J Hall訓練的FLYING QUEST勝出，贏出1/2。MAGNIFICENT獲得亞軍；CHARIZARD獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.9倍大熱門CHARIZARD跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FLYING QUEST 後段發力 B 1.39.30 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Keane · D J Hall | C Keane | D J Hall | 10 | 8.5 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | MAGNIFICENT 早段領放 R Moore · L Ho | R Moore | L Ho | 2 | 5.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | CHARIZARD 後段發力 TT O Murphy · D E Ferraris | O Murphy | D E Ferraris | 6 | 3.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | SOLAR WAI WAI J McDonald · F C Lor | J McDonald | F C Lor | 5 | 9.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | CLEAR CHOICE B/TT S De Sousa · C S Shum | S De Sousa | C S Shum | 4 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | TRAVEL FIRST 後段發力 B/TT Y Kawada · C W Chang | Y Kawada | C W Chang | 8 | 97.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | ALL YOU KNOW B/H/TT K Teetan · R Gibson | K Teetan | R Gibson | 1 | 9.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | CROWN AVENUE V J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 3 | 9.7 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | MY ALLY TT C Y Ho · J Moore | C Y Ho | J Moore | 11 | 10.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | HOME MADE B/TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 7 | 106.0 | 18-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | BEAUTY DAY B/H P-C Boudot · T P Yung | P-C Boudot | T P Yung | 9 | 11.0 | 20-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | PAKISTAN FRIEND B/TT L Dettori · P O'Sullivan | L Dettori | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 15.0 | 45 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | CROWN AVENUE | 17.8% | 5.62 | 8 |
| 2 | 6 | BEAUTY DAY | 15.9% | 6.30 | 11 |
| 3 | 2 | CHARIZARD | 10.8% | 9.29 | 3 |
| 4 | 12 | CLEAR CHOICE | 10.5% | 9.48 | 5 |
| 5 | 11 | ALL YOU KNOW | 9.9% | 10.07 | 7 |
| 6 | 5 | SOLAR WAI WAI | 9.0% | 11.05 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | MY ALLY | 7.2% | 13.82 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 7.1% | 14.10 | 12 |
| 9 | 4 | FLYING QUEST | 4.1% | 24.41 | 1 |
| 10 | 8 | MAGNIFICENT | 3.5% | 28.90 | 2 |
| 11 | 3 | HOME MADE | 2.6% | 39.00 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | TRAVEL FIRST | 1.6% | 61.53 | 6 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 85.5
PLACE
2 16.5
4 28
8 23.5
QUINELLA
4,8 301
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 65
2,8 41.5
4,8 101.5
TIERCE
4,8,2 1,865
TRIO
2,4,8 207
FIRST 4
2,4,5,8 1,155
QUARTET
4,8,2,5 34,709
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 19.5
全部彩池（另 3 項）
6TH DOUBLE
3/4 302
3/8 24.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,7,10/2,3,4/2,4,8 819,886
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,7,10/2,3,4/Any Combination 10,334