跑馬地 · 2019-12-04
第 9場
2019-12-04跑馬地第9場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、C Fownes訓練的DANCING FIGHTER勝出，贏出1-1/4。AMAZING KIWI獲得亞軍；JOYFUL UNION獲得季軍。3.0倍大熱門JOYFUL UNION跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | DANCING FIGHTER SR/TT 1.09.63 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 10 | 4.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | AMAZING KIWI K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 2 | 28.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 1 | JOYFUL UNION Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 1 | 3.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | BUOYANT BOY TT C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 9 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | NAMJONG SINGS H1/TT R Moore · C S Shum | R Moore | C S Shum | 5 | 3.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | BREEDERS' SKY CP-/H1 M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 4 | 52.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | LADY FIRST TT G van Niekerk · K H Ting | G van Niekerk | K H Ting | 6 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED B J McDonald · J Moore | J McDonald | J Moore | 11 | 19.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 8 | BEAUTY SPARK B/TT O Murphy · F C Lor | O Murphy | F C Lor | 12 | 104.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | ISLAND SHINE TT1 A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 8 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | EVEN KEEL H1 H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 7 | 288.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | MERRYGOWIN B T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 57.0 | 11-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | DANCING FIGHTER | 23.5% | 4.25 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | JOYFUL UNION | 22.8% | 4.39 | 3 |
| 3 | 11 | LADY FIRST | 11.1% | 9.01 | 7 |
| 4 | 3 | ISLAND SHINE | 8.9% | 11.23 | 10 |
| 5 | 4 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 8.3% | 12.01 | 8 |
| 6 | 5 | NAMJONG SINGS | 8.0% | 12.50 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | BUOYANT BOY | 4.6% | 21.52 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | AMAZING KIWI | 4.0% | 25.16 | 2 |
| 9 | 12 | BREEDERS' SKY | 3.4% | 29.46 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | BEAUTY SPARK | 3.1% | 32.23 | 9 |
| 11 | 10 | MERRYGOWIN | 1.2% | 84.25 | 12 |
| 12 | 2 | EVEN KEEL | 1.0% | 99.45 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 43.5
PLACE
1 14.5
6 15.5
7 64
QUINELLA
6,7 479
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 26.5
1,7 162.5
6,7 161.5
TIERCE
6,7,1 3,024
TRIO
1,6,7 374
FIRST 4
1,6,7,9 764
QUARTET
6,7,1,9 18,581
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 18
全部彩池（另 3 項）
8TH DOUBLE
12/6 217.5
12/7 256.5
SIX UP
7/7/3/4/12/6 233,148
7,11/7,10/2,3/4,8/11,12/6,7 5,180
TREBLE
4/12/6 4,169
4/12/7 4,734