跑馬地 · 2021-03-03
第 3場
2021-03-03跑馬地第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、L Ho訓練的WOOD ON FIRE勝出，贏出N。MISSION SMART獲得亞軍；SHADOW RUNNER獲得季軍。2.5倍大熱門MERCURIAL跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT 1.10.03 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 11 | 9.8 | N |
| 2 | 11 | MISSION SMART CP/H C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 5 | 4.7 | N |
| 3 | 4 | SHADOW RUNNER B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 13.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | MERCURIAL TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 7 | 2.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | SUNNY BABY M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 10 | 24.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | UNIVERSAL GO GO B/TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 6 | 8.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | DAZZLING FEELING TT H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 1 | 46.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | NOIR RIDER V Borges · T P Yung | V Borges | T P Yung | 12 | 154.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 9 | YOUNG VICTORY TT1 T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 4 | 17.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | GALLANT LEGACY SR/TT K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 3 | 7.8 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | LUCKY PUZZLE SR M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 9 | 71.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | FOCUS B2 R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 8 | 23.0 | 7-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MERCURIAL | 17.7% | 5.65 | 4 |
| 2 | 8 | GALLANT LEGACY | 16.5% | 6.05 | 10 |
| 3 | 11 | MISSION SMART | 14.1% | 7.09 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 12.8% | 7.84 | 6 |
| 5 | 3 | WOOD ON FIRE | 9.3% | 10.76 | 1 |
| 6 | 4 | SHADOW RUNNER | 6.4% | 15.59 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | YOUNG VICTORY | 5.9% | 17.07 | 9 |
| 8 | 5 | SUNNY BABY | 5.8% | 17.14 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | DAZZLING FEELING | 3.9% | 25.44 | 7 |
| 10 | 12 | LUCKY PUZZLE | 3.6% | 27.70 | 11 |
| 11 | 10 | FOCUS | 2.9% | 34.28 | 12 |
| 12 | 1 | NOIR RIDER | 1.1% | 94.24 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 98
PLACE
3 27
4 36
11 17
QUINELLA
3,11 228.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 232.5
3,11 71.5
4,11 105
FORECAST
3,11 523
TIERCE
3,11,4 10,210
TRIO
3,4,11 1,204
FIRST 4
2,3,4,11 629
QUARTET
3,11,4,2 25,431
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE
7/3 295
7/11 17.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 23.5