跑馬地 · 2024-12-04 · 12:15
第 4場
2024-12-04跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1000米。由M Barzalona策騎、Y S Tsui訓練的SERGEANT PEPPER勝出，贏出NOSE。LEAN MASTER獲得亞軍；PARENTS' LOVE獲得季軍。3.7倍大熱門PARENTS' LOVE跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SERGEANT PEPPER 0.57.28 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Barzalona · Y S Tsui | M Barzalona | Y S Tsui | 8 | 38.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 3 | LEAN MASTER B/TT W Buick · C H Yip | W Buick | C H Yip | 4 | 8.3 | NOSE |
| 3 | 10 | PARENTS' LOVE H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 9 | 3.7 | N |
| 4 | 12 | SUPER SIXTY H/P R King · C Fownes | R King | C Fownes | 6 | 21.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | SILVER SPURS SR-/CP1/TT J McDonald · C Fownes | J McDonald | C Fownes | 7 | 32.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | CIRCUS REEL H Doyle · D J Hall | H Doyle | D J Hall | 10 | 37.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | SIGHT HAPPY CP Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 5 | 6.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | CIRCUIT SEVEN B/TT C Keane · W K Mo | C Keane | W K Mo | 3 | 9.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | GRAND NOVA E R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 12 | 16.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | CHAMPION METHOD TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 2 | 4.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | SPICY SPANGLE TT Y Kawada · P C Ng | Y Kawada | P C Ng | 11 | 20.0 | 4 |
| 12 | 7 | NOTTHESILLYONE TT H Bowman · M Newnham | H Bowman | M Newnham | 1 | 13.0 | 6-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LEAN MASTER | 18.9% | 5.29 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | SIGHT HAPPY | 14.6% | 6.87 | 7 |
| 3 | 4 | CHAMPION METHOD | 14.3% | 7.00 | 10 |
| 4 | 2 | GRAND NOVA | 10.1% | 9.91 | 9 |
| 5 | 8 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 9.4% | 10.63 | 8 |
| 6 | 10 | PARENTS' LOVE | 9.1% | 10.95 | 3 |
| 7 | 5 | SPICY SPANGLE | 7.6% | 13.09 | 11 |
| 8 | 7 | NOTTHESILLYONE | 4.1% | 24.33 | 12 |
| 9 | 12 | SUPER SIXTY | 4.0% | 24.76 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | SILVER SPURS | 3.9% | 25.64 | 5 |
| 11 | 6 | CIRCUS REEL | 2.7% | 37.41 | 6 |
| 12 | 1 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 1.2% | 80.41 | 1 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 384
PLACE
1 96
3 23
10 17
QUINELLA
1,3 1,325
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 380
1,10 266.5
3,10 56
FORECAST
1,3 3,151
TIERCE
1,3,10 15,841
TRIO
1,3,10 1,878
FIRST 4
1,3,10,12 5,088
QUARTET
1,3,10,12 136,299
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3RD DOUBLE
12/1 2,305
12/3 52.5