跑馬地 · 2019-09-11
第 6場
2019-09-11跑馬地第6場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由H N Wong策騎、Y S Tsui訓練的VERY SWEET ORANGE勝出，贏出1/2。CONFUCIUS DAY獲得亞軍；SHINING ON獲得季軍。4.5倍大熱門SHINING ON跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | VERY SWEET ORANGE V 1.10.29 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 2 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | CONFUCIUS DAY B2/TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 7 | 20.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | SHINING ON C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 4.5 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | LADY FIRST TT Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 12 | 5.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | THE CREATETH B G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 6 | 4.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | STRATHALLAN K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 9 | 17.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | BULLISH BROTHER B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 10 | 5.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | ALL BEST FRIENDS B K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 3 | 8.8 | 4 |
| 9 | 12 | FLYING MONKEY TT A Sanna · T P Yung | A Sanna | T P Yung | 5 | 29.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | HAPPY WIN WIN TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 11 | 64.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | JOYFUL HEART TT A Domeyer · F C Lor | A Domeyer | F C Lor | 1 | 16.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | FLYING TIGER HERO XB1/TT- R Bayliss · D J Whyte | R Bayliss | D J Whyte | 8 | 52.0 | 6-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | BULLISH BROTHER | 18.5% | 5.40 | 7 |
| 2 | 11 | VERY SWEET ORANGE | 16.8% | 5.95 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | ALL BEST FRIENDS | 13.4% | 7.44 | 8 |
| 4 | 1 | LADY FIRST | 10.6% | 9.46 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | THE CREATETH | 10.4% | 9.63 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | JOYFUL HEART | 8.0% | 12.56 | 11 |
| 7 | 10 | SHINING ON | 6.7% | 14.82 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | FLYING MONKEY | 5.1% | 19.49 | 9 |
| 9 | 2 | STRATHALLAN | 4.5% | 22.00 | 6 |
| 10 | 4 | CONFUCIUS DAY | 3.7% | 26.90 | 2 |
| 11 | 3 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 1.2% | 81.09 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | FLYING TIGER HERO | 0.9% | 107.50 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 138.5
PLACE
4 59.5
10 19
11 38
QUINELLA
4,11 1,680.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,10 200
4,11 425
10,11 111.5
TIERCE
11,4,10 21,159
TRIO
4,10,11 2,270
FIRST 4
1,4,10,11 3,629
QUARTET
11,4,10,1 101,258
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 32.5
全部彩池（另 3 項）
5TH DOUBLE
7/4 1,714
7/11 9,660.5
TRIPLE TRIO
5,6,9/3,7,8/4,10,11 23,501,800
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
5,6,9/3,7,8/Any Combination 13,978