跑馬地 · 2019-09-11
第 8場
2019-09-11跑馬地第8場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、A S Cruz訓練的SMART LEADER勝出，贏出SH。AMBITIOUS HEART獲得亞軍；JUMBO HAPPINESS獲得季軍。頭馬以2.3倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SMART LEADER B/TT 1.10.15 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 2 | 2.3 | SH |
| 2 | 11 | AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT G van Niekerk · D E Ferraris | G van Niekerk | D E Ferraris | 7 | 14.0 | SH |
| 3 | 4 | JUMBO HAPPINESS Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 8 | 5.5 | HD |
| 4 | 9 | BALLISTIC KING C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 10 | 9.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | NORDIC WARRIOR B K Teetan · R Gibson | K Teetan | R Gibson | 12 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | FORZA ANGEL H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 6 | 25.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | STARLIGHT P- T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 1 | 32.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | MR PICASSO H-/B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 9 | 53.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | FRUSTRATED B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 4 | 5.8 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | DREAM COME TRUE A Domeyer · T P Yung | A Domeyer | T P Yung | 5 | 17.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | JADE THEATRE B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 11 | 70.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | MEGA RED B A Sanna · C W Chang | A Sanna | C W Chang | 3 | 46.0 | 8-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SMART LEADER | 27.4% | 3.66 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | DREAM COME TRUE | 14.4% | 6.94 | 10 |
| 3 | 9 | BALLISTIC KING | 12.2% | 8.20 | 4 |
| 4 | 6 | FRUSTRATED | 11.4% | 8.76 | 9 |
| 5 | 4 | JUMBO HAPPINESS | 8.4% | 11.97 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | FORZA ANGEL | 7.7% | 13.05 | 6 |
| 7 | 10 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 5.4% | 18.68 | 5 |
| 8 | 11 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 5.0% | 20.07 | 2 |
| 9 | 12 | MR PICASSO | 4.0% | 24.99 | 8 |
| 10 | 8 | MEGA RED | 1.8% | 55.50 | 12 |
| 11 | 5 | STARLIGHT | 1.6% | 61.49 | 7 |
| 12 | 2 | JADE THEATRE | 0.8% | 118.50 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 23
PLACE
4 18.5
7 13.5
11 37.5
QUINELLA
7,11 140.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 31
4,11 169
7,11 59
TIERCE
7,11,4 1,613
TRIO
4,7,11 358
FIRST 4
4,7,9,11 574
QUARTET
7,11,4,9 10,315
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 16.5
A3 —
全部彩池（另 3 項）
7TH DOUBLE
11/7 126.5
11/11 119
SIX UP
2,10/5,6/3,7/4,11/2,11/7,11 7,885
10/5/7/11/11/7 1,946,677
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
11/11/7 2,231
11/11/11 983