跑馬地 · 2020-12-09
第 4場
2020-12-09跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、D E Ferraris訓練的GOUTEN OF GARO勝出，贏出1。HAPPY GOOD GUYS獲得亞軍；TRAVEL DATUK獲得季軍。3.9倍大熱門WINNER'S HEART跑獲第8名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | GOUTEN OF GARO B/TT 0.57.21 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · D E Ferraris | J Moreira | D E Ferraris | 8 | 15.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B2 W Buick · P F Yiu | W Buick | P F Yiu | 9 | 8.1 | 1 |
| 3 | 10 | TRAVEL DATUK B C Y Ho · R Gibson | C Y Ho | R Gibson | 2 | 6.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | JAZZ STEED B/TT P-C Boudot · C Fownes | P-C Boudot | C Fownes | 10 | 7.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | FARM BUMPER A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 6 | 19.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | VERY SWEET ORANGE V T Marquand · Y S Tsui | T Marquand | Y S Tsui | 3 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | HAPPILY FRIENDS H Doyle · K H Ting | H Doyle | K H Ting | 11 | 33.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | WINNER'S HEART N Callan · F C Lor | N Callan | F C Lor | 7 | 3.9 | 3 |
| 9 | 6 | YOUNG VICTORY M Barzalona · W Y So | M Barzalona | W Y So | 5 | 23.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | PACKING CHAMPION H R Moore · L Ho | R Moore | L Ho | 1 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | HEY PAL B/TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 12 | 15.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 4 | 7.4 | 4-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 13.9% | 7.18 | 12 |
| 2 | 11 | GOUTEN OF GARO | 11.9% | 8.42 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | JAZZ STEED | 11.7% | 8.55 | 4 |
| 4 | 8 | WINNER'S HEART | 10.4% | 9.65 | 8 |
| 5 | 5 | PACKING CHAMPION | 10.2% | 9.76 | 10 |
| 6 | 10 | TRAVEL DATUK | 9.8% | 10.18 | 3 |
| 7 | 1 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 6.7% | 14.94 | 2 |
| 8 | 9 | HEY PAL | 6.2% | 16.14 | 11 |
| 9 | 6 | YOUNG VICTORY | 5.5% | 18.22 | 9 |
| 10 | 7 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 5.1% | 19.78 | 7 |
| 11 | 4 | FARM BUMPER | 4.5% | 22.24 | 5 |
| 12 | 3 | VERY SWEET ORANGE | 4.1% | 24.14 | 6 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 154.5
PLACE
1 23.5
10 20
11 44
QUINELLA
1,11 554.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 93
1,11 164.5
10,11 162
FORECAST
11,1 1,623
TIERCE
11,1,10 7,531
TRIO
1,10,11 1,095
FIRST 4
1,2,10,11 2,012
QUARTET
11,1,10,2 60,055
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 21
3RD DOUBLE
5/1 57.5
5/11 656