跑馬地 · 2021-01-20
第 4場
2021-01-20跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、K W Lui訓練的WINSTON'S LAD勝出，贏出3/4。JOLLY GOOD HEART獲得亞軍；HONEST WAY獲得季軍。4.0倍大熱門A SMILE LIKE YOURS跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WINSTON'S LAD B 1.09.97 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 6 | 8.1 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | JOLLY GOOD HEART Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 2 | 5.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | HONEST WAY CP/TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 7 | 7.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | SMILING FACE B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 11 | 61.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 3 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | M M JOHNNY B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 5 | 18.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 5 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 12 | 4.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | SPLIT OF A SECOND CP/H C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 1 | 5.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | PAKISTAN ZINDABAD B/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz | T Piccone | A S Cruz | 8 | 45.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT C Soumillon · D E Ferraris | C Soumillon | D E Ferraris | 9 | 7.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | ALEE KING PRAWN B1 B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 4 | 62.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | NAMJONG CORTEZ H1/TT1 H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 10 | 124.0 | 8 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 29.6% | 3.38 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 14.0% | 7.14 | 10 |
| 3 | 2 | JOLLY GOOD HEART | 11.1% | 9.04 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | SPLIT OF A SECOND | 10.8% | 9.29 | 8 |
| 5 | 4 | HONEST WAY | 8.0% | 12.45 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 5.6% | 17.79 | 5 |
| 7 | 1 | WINSTON'S LAD | 5.2% | 19.17 | 1 |
| 8 | 10 | SMILING FACE | 4.5% | 22.29 | 4 |
| 9 | 8 | PAKISTAN ZINDABAD | 4.2% | 23.96 | 9 |
| 10 | 7 | NAMJONG CORTEZ | 3.2% | 31.60 | 12 |
| 11 | 6 | ALEE KING PRAWN | 2.3% | 43.71 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | M M JOHNNY | 1.6% | 61.16 | 6 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 81
PLACE
1 24.5
2 20
4 20.5
QUINELLA
1,2 245.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 80.5
1,4 130.5
2,4 72
FORECAST
1,2 513
TIERCE
1,2,4 3,432
TRIO
1,2,4 503
FIRST 4
1,2,4,10 5,747
QUARTET
1,2,4,10 97,810
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 18
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/1 500
2/2 30.5