跑馬地 · 2021-01-20
第 5場
2021-01-20跑馬地第5場，Class 4，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD。由N Callan策騎、C Fownes訓練的FAST PACE勝出，贏出3/4。GLORIOUS LOVER獲得亞軍；MORE THAN ENOUGH獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.9倍大熱門MORE THAN ENOUGH跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FAST PACE 後段發力 H 1.40.16 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 8 | 4.3 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | GLORIOUS LOVER 後段發力 B J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 4 | 4.4 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | MORE THAN ENOUGH B/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz | C Soumillon | A S Cruz | 7 | 2.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | EVER LAUGH 早段領放 B/TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 10 | 7.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | STAY CHILL 後段發力 CP1 T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 9 | 14.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | KIRAM B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 1 | 49.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | GOOD DAYS B/TT V Borges · C S Shum | V Borges | C S Shum | 2 | 35.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | DIAMOND STAR E/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 5 | 12.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | FEARLESS FIRE 後段發力 XB C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 12 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | WINNING VOLATILITY B M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 6 | 56.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | GAMEPLAYER STAR CP C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 106.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | PRECISION DREAM H H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 11 | 178.0 | 12-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FAST PACE | 26.1% | 3.84 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | GLORIOUS LOVER | 22.9% | 4.36 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | MORE THAN ENOUGH | 15.8% | 6.33 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | EVER LAUGH | 10.6% | 9.46 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | FEARLESS FIRE | 6.8% | 14.65 | 9 |
| 6 | 10 | GOOD DAYS | 6.2% | 16.13 | 7 |
| 7 | 12 | DIAMOND STAR | 4.3% | 23.05 | 8 |
| 8 | 9 | STAY CHILL | 3.4% | 29.80 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | WINNING VOLATILITY | 1.7% | 58.73 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | KIRAM | 0.9% | 109.82 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | GAMEPLAYER STAR | 0.9% | 115.20 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | PRECISION DREAM | 0.5% | 217.68 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 43.5
PLACE
2 17
3 14.5
5 15.5
QUINELLA
2,3 103.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 37
2,5 30
3,5 32.5
FORECAST
3,2 260
TIERCE
3,2,5 645
TRIO
2,3,5 99
FIRST 4
1,2,3,5 80
QUARTET
3,2,5,1 2,496
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,4/2,3,5 3,833
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 22
4TH DOUBLE
1/2 79
1/3 523.5