Happy Valley · 2021-01-20
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FAST PACE Closed strongly H 1.40.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 8 | 4.3 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly B J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 4 | 4.4 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | MORE THAN ENOUGH B/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz | C Soumillon | A S Cruz | 7 | 2.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | EVER LAUGH Led early B/TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 10 | 7.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | STAY CHILL Closed strongly CP1 T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 9 | 14.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | KIRAM B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 1 | 49.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | GOOD DAYS B/TT V Borges · C S Shum | V Borges | C S Shum | 2 | 35.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | DIAMOND STAR E/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 5 | 12.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | FEARLESS FIRE Closed strongly XB C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 12 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | WINNING VOLATILITY B M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 6 | 56.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | GAMEPLAYER STAR CP C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 106.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | PRECISION DREAM H H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 11 | 178.0 | 12-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-20 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FAST PACE, ridden by N Callan and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with GLORIOUS LOVER second and MORE THAN ENOUGH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite MORE THAN ENOUGH finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FAST PACE | 26.1% | 3.84 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | GLORIOUS LOVER | 22.9% | 4.36 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | MORE THAN ENOUGH | 15.8% | 6.33 | 3 |
| 4 | 0 | EVER LAUGH | 10.6% | 9.46 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | FEARLESS FIRE | 6.8% | 14.65 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | GOOD DAYS | 6.2% | 16.13 | 7 |
| 7 | 0 | DIAMOND STAR | 4.3% | 23.05 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | STAY CHILL | 3.4% | 29.80 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | WINNING VOLATILITY | 1.7% | 58.73 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | KIRAM | 0.9% | 109.82 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | GAMEPLAYER STAR | 0.9% | 115.20 | 11 |
| 12 | 0 | PRECISION DREAM | 0.5% | 217.68 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 43.5
PLACE
2 17
3 14.5
5 15.5
QUINELLA
2,3 103.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 37
2,5 30
3,5 32.5
FORECAST
3,2 260
TIERCE
3,2,5 645
TRIO
2,3,5 99
FIRST 4
1,2,3,5 80
QUARTET
3,2,5,1 2,496
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,4/2,3,5 3,833
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 22
4TH DOUBLE
1/2 79
1/3 523.5