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Happy Valley · 2021-01-20

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-20 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SCORES OF FUN, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/2, with SPARKLING DRAGON second and STARZ HERO third. The 2.7 favourite IMA SINGLE MAN finished 12th.

Result

Official · 1.09.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SCORES OF FUN TT 1.09.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Size 4 5.5 1-1/2
2 2 SPARKLING DRAGON TT K Teetan · A T Millard 7 8.9 1-1/2
3 11 STARZ HERO B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 75.0 2-1/4
4 4 EQUALETTA BLITZ B/H C Schofield · K H Ting 12 13.0 2-3/4
5 5 MR LUMIERES B Shinn · D J Hall 3 99.0 3-1/2
6 7 HARMONY N HOME Z Purton · C S Shum 9 5.1 5
7 10 SEVEN HEAVENS V K H Chan · C Fownes 8 11.0 5-1/4
8 6 DIVINE REGULUS TT T Piccone · W Y So 5 15.0 5-1/4
9 12 THOU SHALL SING B M F Poon · K W Lui 10 47.0 7-1/4
10 8 LITTLE BIRD V K C Leung · K L Man 6 73.0 8-3/4
11 9 ARES J Moreira · F C Lor 11 14.0 17-3/4
12 1 IMA SINGLE MAN CP/H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 2 2.7 30-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SCORES OF FUN2. SPARKLING DRAGON+1.5L3. STARZ HERO+2.25L4. EQUALETTA BLITZ+2.75L5. MR LUMIERES+3.5L6. HARMONY N HOME+5L7. SEVEN HEAVENS+5.25L8. DIVINE REGULUS+5.25L9. THOU SHALL SING+7.25L10. LITTLE BIRD+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick IMA SINGLE MAN (23.6%) finished 12th — the winner SCORES OF FUN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 IMA SINGLE MAN 23.6% 4.23 12
2 9 ARES 18.6% 5.37 11
3 3 SCORES OF FUN 15.2% 6.59 1
4 7 HARMONY N HOME 12.8% 7.84 6
5 10 SEVEN HEAVENS 7.4% 13.43 7
6 4 EQUALETTA BLITZ 7.3% 13.71 4
7 2 SPARKLING DRAGON 5.5% 18.09 2
8 12 THOU SHALL SING 3.9% 25.41 9
9 6 DIVINE REGULUS 2.6% 38.76 8
10 5 MR LUMIERES 1.2% 85.36 5
11 8 LITTLE BIRD 1.1% 93.20 10
12 11 STARZ HERO 0.8% 128.21 3
IMA SINGLE MANARESSCORES OF FUN — wonHARMONY N HOMESEVEN HEAVENSEQUALETTA BLITZSPARKLING DRAGONTHOU SHALL SINGDIVINE REGULUSMR LUMIERESLITTLE BIRDSTARZ HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 55

PLACE

2 23.5

3 16.5

11 166

QUINELLA

2,3 209

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 62

2,11 793.5

3,11 453.5

FORECAST

3,2 509

TIERCE

3,2,11 24,322

TRIO

2,3,11 4,366

FIRST 4

2,3,4,11 10,417

QUARTET

3,2,11,4 241,872

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 18

7TH DOUBLE

11/2 73

11/3 219.5