Happy Valley · 2021-01-20
Race 3
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB 0.57.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 7 | 4.8 | NOSE |
| 2 | 0 | VIVA MAMA XB-/TT2 K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 12 | 7.5 | NOSE |
| 3 | 0 | DR EQ E-/H1/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 15.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | READY CONQUEROR B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 4 | 9.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | FLYING MONKEY BO/TT K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 1 | 4.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | ARDENODE TT C Soumillon · W Y So | C Soumillon | W Y So | 6 | 3.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | WINNING WARRIOR B V Borges · K L Man | V Borges | K L Man | 10 | 114.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH B/TT C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 9 | 12.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | TELECOM MISSILE B A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 8 | 30.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 0 | SHOW MISSION CP-/B2 H W Lai · C W Chang | H W Lai | C W Chang | 2 | 62.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | LUCKY TURBO B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 3 | 18.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 0 | ALL THE WAY B/TT C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 5 | 41.0 | 6-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-20 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. OVERSUBSCRIBED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by NOSE, with VIVA MAMA second and DR EQ third. The 3.7 favourite ARDENODE finished 6th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 26.0% | 3.84 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | ARDENODE | 14.3% | 7.01 | 6 |
| 3 | 0 | READY CONQUEROR | 9.1% | 10.95 | 4 |
| 4 | 0 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH | 8.8% | 11.42 | 8 |
| 5 | 0 | FLYING MONKEY | 8.0% | 12.54 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | LUCKY TURBO | 7.8% | 12.79 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | VIVA MAMA | 6.5% | 15.36 | 2 |
| 8 | 0 | DR EQ | 5.9% | 16.93 | 3 |
| 9 | 0 | ALL THE WAY | 5.6% | 17.70 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | TELECOM MISSILE | 4.2% | 24.10 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | WINNING WARRIOR | 2.0% | 49.31 | 7 |
| 12 | 0 | SHOW MISSION | 1.8% | 55.50 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 48
PLACE
1 55
2 20
9 21.5
QUINELLA
2,9 203
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 135.5
1,9 257.5
2,9 68.5
FORECAST
2,9 488
TIERCE
2,9,1 6,444
TRIO
1,2,9 1,212
FIRST 4
1,2,6,9 3,053
QUARTET
2,9,1,6 59,046
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
8/2 160
8/9 70
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 21
A2 —