Happy Valley · 2021-01-20
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WOOD ON FIRE, ridden by K C Leung and trained by L Ho, won by 3/4, with DOLLAR REWARD second and VICTORY IN HAND third. Victory came as the 4.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT 1.09.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 4 | 4.1 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 9 | DOLLAR REWARD P-/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 3 | 13.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | VICTORY IN HAND TT N Callan · K W Lui | N Callan | K W Lui | 12 | 6.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 12 | WINNING STRIKES B/TT V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 9.1 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | CHAMP PATROL H J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 9 | 6.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | SMART CHARADE B/H/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 7 | 5.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | CHIKORITA XB Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 10 | 14.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | CASA KINGDOM XB1 B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 6 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | AEROSONIC P1/TT1 C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 1 | 28.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | COOLCELEB PC/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 8 | 35.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | WINNER'S HEART M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 11 | 20.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | WAH MAY LUCK CP1/H1/TT1 T Piccone · A S Cruz | T Piccone | A S Cruz | 5 | 37.0 | 16-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CHAMP PATROL | 24.5% | 4.08 | 5 |
| 2 | 8 | WOOD ON FIRE | 12.9% | 7.75 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | AEROSONIC | 9.4% | 10.66 | 9 |
| 4 | 10 | WINNER'S HEART | 8.7% | 11.43 | 11 |
| 5 | 9 | DOLLAR REWARD | 8.6% | 11.59 | 2 |
| 6 | 12 | WINNING STRIKES | 8.6% | 11.66 | 4 |
| 7 | 11 | SMART CHARADE | 8.0% | 12.56 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | COOLCELEB | 5.2% | 19.07 | 10 |
| 9 | 4 | VICTORY IN HAND | 4.9% | 20.39 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | WAH MAY LUCK | 4.5% | 22.17 | 12 |
| 11 | 2 | CHIKORITA | 2.4% | 41.23 | 7 |
| 12 | 6 | CASA KINGDOM | 2.2% | 45.27 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 41
PLACE
4 21.5
8 14
9 38.5
QUINELLA
8,9 253
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 45
4,9 124
8,9 85
FORECAST
8,9 435
TIERCE
8,9,4 2,875
TRIO
4,8,9 538
FIRST 4
4,8,9,12 1,196
QUARTET
8,9,4,12 23,897
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
2/8 349
2/9 173
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 22.5