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Happy Valley · 2021-01-20

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. STOCK LEGEND, ridden by J Moreira and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/2, with PRANCE DRAGON second and HAPPILY FRIENDS third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 STOCK LEGEND V-/H2/TT1 1.09.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · K W Lui 1 1.6 1-1/2
2 2 PRANCE DRAGON V/TT C Soumillon · T P Yung 7 19.0 1-1/2
3 11 HAPPILY FRIENDS C Schofield · K H Ting 10 21.0 4
4 9 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR CP/H/XB T Piccone · D A Hayes 4 18.0 4-1/4
5 4 AMAZING BOY H N Wong · C W Chang 9 117.0 4-1/4
6 3 ORIENTAL AMIGO B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 3 9.4 4-1/2
7 12 AFTER ME B H W Lai · D E Ferraris 11 78.0 5-3/4
8 1 COLONEL V Z Purton · P F Yiu 12 7.7 7
9 5 AUGUST MOON B1 V Borges · P O'Sullivan 5 19.0 7-1/2
10 6 MAGIC SUPREME CP/TT K C Leung · K L Man 2 12.0 9-1/2
11 10 GARLIC HERO E1/TT M F Poon · C H Yip 6 27.0 10-1/4
12 8 OURGOLDENRULES XB/B1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 8 121.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STOCK LEGEND2. PRANCE DRAGON+1.5L3. HAPPILY FRIENDS+4L4. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR+4.25L5. AMAZING BOY+4.25L6. ORIENTAL AMIGO+4.5L7. AFTER ME+5.75L8. COLONEL+7L9. AUGUST MOON+7.5L10. MAGIC SUPREME+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick STOCK LEGEND (48.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 STOCK LEGEND 48.3% 2.07 1
2 1 COLONEL 12.6% 7.96 8
3 3 ORIENTAL AMIGO 10.0% 10.02 6
4 11 HAPPILY FRIENDS 5.6% 17.86 3
5 6 MAGIC SUPREME 5.0% 19.84 10
6 2 PRANCE DRAGON 4.6% 21.60 2
7 5 AUGUST MOON 4.1% 24.39 9
8 9 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 3.7% 27.12 4
9 12 AFTER ME 2.2% 44.61 7
10 10 GARLIC HERO 1.6% 62.53 11
11 4 AMAZING BOY 1.3% 79.72 5
12 8 OURGOLDENRULES 1.0% 96.87 12
STOCK LEGEND — wonCOLONELORIENTAL AMIGOHAPPILY FRIENDSMAGIC SUPREMEPRANCE DRAGONAUGUST MOONYEE CHEONG WARRIORAFTER MEGARLIC HEROAMAZING BOYOURGOLDENRULES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 16

PLACE

2 39.5

7 13

11 44

QUINELLA

2,7 119.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 55

2,11 309.5

7,11 61.5

FORECAST

7,2 151

TIERCE

7,2,11 1,406

TRIO

2,7,11 622

FIRST 4

2,7,9,11 1,075

QUARTET

7,2,11,9 9,892

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 16

A3

A2

5TH DOUBLE

3/2 89.5

3/7 83.5