跑馬地 · 2021-02-03
第 7場
2021-02-03跑馬地第7場，Class 3，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的INCANTO PREPARED勝出，贏出1/2。EXCEPTIONAL NICE獲得亞軍；SMILING CITY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.6倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | INCANTO PREPARED 後段發力 E/TT 1.41.63 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 2.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 12 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 12 | 23.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | SMILING CITY 後段發力 CP C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 4.3 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | SMOOTHIES 早段領放 B/TT C Schofield · C S Shum | C Schofield | C S Shum | 1 | 8.4 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | GIFT OF LIFELINE 後段發力 B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 6 | 5.6 | 1 |
| 6 | 11 | SUNNY LAD 後段發力 B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 5 | 41.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | NAMJONG PLUS 後段發力 C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 10 | 34.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | KYRUS UNICORN 後段發力 SR Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 11 | 9.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | CHEERS BABY H W Lai · P O'Sullivan | H W Lai | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 206.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | XIANG BAI QI B T Piccone · D E Ferraris | T Piccone | D E Ferraris | 7 | 18.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | TOTAL POWER B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 9 | 39.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | BREEDERS' DING B1/TT1 N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 4 | 50.0 | 21 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | INCANTO PREPARED | 32.3% | 3.09 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | SMILING CITY | 18.8% | 5.31 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | GIFT OF LIFELINE | 8.8% | 11.41 | 5 |
| 4 | 2 | KYRUS UNICORN | 7.8% | 12.76 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | SUNNY LAD | 7.0% | 14.27 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | NAMJONG PLUS | 6.4% | 15.61 | 7 |
| 7 | 10 | XIANG BAI QI | 4.5% | 22.08 | 10 |
| 8 | 8 | SMOOTHIES | 4.0% | 25.25 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | TOTAL POWER | 3.5% | 28.20 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE | 3.3% | 30.44 | 2 |
| 11 | 5 | BREEDERS' DING | 3.1% | 32.52 | 12 |
| 12 | 3 | CHEERS BABY | 0.4% | 231.24 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 26.5
PLACE
6 17.5
7 12
12 54.5
QUINELLA
7,12 345
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 26
6,12 136.5
7,12 116.5
FORECAST
7,12 366
TIERCE
7,12,6 2,359
TRIO
6,7,12 442
FIRST 4
6,7,8,12 709
QUARTET
7,12,6,8 13,145
全部彩池（另 5 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,7/6,7,12 35,975
3 PICK 1
A1 20.5
A3 —
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
5/7 80
5/12 266.5
TRIPLE TRIO
4,8,9/3,5,7/6,7,12 1,307,390
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
4,8,9/3,5,7/Any Combination 2,630