跑馬地 · 2021-02-03
第 9場
2021-02-03跑馬地第9場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、C Fownes訓練的CAPITAL STAR勝出，贏出1-1/4。IGNITING獲得亞軍；SCORES OF FUN獲得季軍。1.6倍大熱門IGNITING跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CAPITAL STAR 1.09.18 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 10 | 6.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | IGNITING B Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 5 | 1.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 1 | SCORES OF FUN TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 4 | 5.9 | 3 |
| 4 | 12 | NORDIC WARRIOR B M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 7 | 28.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | SHOUSON B A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 11 | 22.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | HAPPY ALUMNI H/XB/TT V Borges · D A Hayes | V Borges | D A Hayes | 3 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | HARDLY SWEARS H- M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 12 | 37.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | STOICISM B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 9 | 205.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | HELENA BABY XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 2 | 43.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | ACA POWER B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 1 | 216.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | LITTLE BIRD V-/B2 H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 8 | 146.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | THE RUNNER CP M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 6 | 13.0 | 11-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | IGNITING | 31.1% | 3.21 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | SCORES OF FUN | 19.8% | 5.05 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | CAPITAL STAR | 14.6% | 6.86 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | HAPPY ALUMNI | 9.7% | 10.27 | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | THE RUNNER | 9.2% | 10.81 | 12 |
| 6 | 2 | HELENA BABY | 4.4% | 22.75 | 9 |
| 7 | 8 | HARDLY SWEARS | 3.5% | 28.79 | 7 |
| 8 | 12 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 3.4% | 29.22 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | SHOUSON | 2.4% | 41.17 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | STOICISM | 0.7% | 135.43 | 8 |
| 11 | 10 | LITTLE BIRD | 0.6% | 169.82 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | ACA POWER | 0.5% | 207.53 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 69.5
PLACE
1 16
3 11.5
6 21.5
QUINELLA
3,6 81.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 21
1,6 51
3,6 35
FORECAST
6,3 235
TIERCE
6,3,1 695
TRIO
1,3,6 81
FIRST 4
1,3,6,12 247
QUARTET
6,3,1,12 6,468
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 38.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,8,11/1,3,6 5,742
8TH DOUBLE
11/3 11.5
11/6 271
SIX UP
2,6/8,9/5,7/7,12/1,11/3,6 1,000
2/8/5/7/11/6 6,387
2 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
7/11/3 29
7/11/6 594