跑馬地 · 2021-11-24
第 4場
2021-11-24跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD。由L Ferraris策騎、D E Ferraris訓練的CHARIZARD勝出，贏出SH。LOYAL BABY獲得亞軍；ZONE D獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.8倍大熱門LOYAL BABY跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | CHARIZARD 後段發力 B/TT 1.39.73 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 5 | 5.0 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | LOYAL BABY 後段發力 J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 8 | 2.8 | SH |
| 3 | 4 | ZONE D 後段發力 H/P/TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 4 | 10.0 | N |
| 4 | 11 | CHATER PINS A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 1 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | MORE THAN ENOUGH 早段領放 B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 9 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | GREAT TREASURE 後段發力 M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 3 | 41.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | FAITHFUL TRINITY H/TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 2 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 10 | LAPUTA TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | ERNEST FEELING 後段發力 B/TT Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 10 | 5.3 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | SURE WIN WIN 後段發力 V K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 12 | 40.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | MISSION BRAVO B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 11 | 67.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | SHINY TWO H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 6 | 148.0 | 16-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | LOYAL BABY | 23.9% | 4.18 | 2 |
| 2 | 7 | ERNEST FEELING | 19.7% | 5.09 | 9 |
| 3 | 4 | ZONE D | 11.4% | 8.79 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | LAPUTA | 8.0% | 12.53 | 8 |
| 5 | 8 | FAITHFUL TRINITY | 7.5% | 13.31 | 7 |
| 6 | 9 | CHARIZARD | 7.5% | 13.42 | 1 |
| 7 | 3 | MORE THAN ENOUGH | 7.0% | 14.22 | 5 |
| 8 | 11 | CHATER PINS | 6.1% | 16.38 | 4 |
| 9 | 12 | SURE WIN WIN | 4.1% | 24.29 | 10 |
| 10 | 5 | GREAT TREASURE | 3.2% | 31.67 | 6 |
| 11 | 1 | MISSION BRAVO | 1.1% | 94.96 | 11 |
| 12 | 6 | SHINY TWO | 0.6% | 157.90 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 50.5
PLACE
2 14.5
4 30
9 16.5
QUINELLA
2,9 77.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 60
2,9 32
4,9 78.5
FORECAST
9,2 189
TIERCE
9,2,4 1,221
TRIO
2,4,9 269
FIRST 4
2,4,9,11 650
QUARTET
9,2,4,11 11,336
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,6/2,4,9 8,269
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 18
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/2 42
2/9 545