跑馬地 · 2021-12-15 · 21:46
第 6場
2021-12-15跑馬地第6場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、K W Lui訓練的SPICY GRILL勝出，贏出1/2。HAPPILY FRIENDS獲得亞軍；FALCON TURBO獲得季軍。2.8倍大熱門BAEBAE TSOI跑獲第9名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | SPICY GRILL B/TT 1.10.21 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 7 | 5.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | HAPPILY FRIENDS V C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 1 | 5.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | FALCON TURBO B/TT1 V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 9 | 20.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 12 | SHADOW RUNNER TT M F Poon · P O'Sullivan | M F Poon | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | CAPTAIN LONG K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 10 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | GREAT HARVEST A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 4 | 9.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | GOOD SHOT H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 8 | 21.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | NOIR RIDER B/TT2 C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | BAEBAE TSOI CP/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 5 | 2.8 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | INESTIMABLE B1 R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 12 | 69.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 2 | GREEN ENVY V/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 2 | 26.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 9 | STRIVE FOR GLORY B/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 11 | 46.0 | 8-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 24.3% | 4.12 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | BAEBAE TSOI | 21.8% | 4.58 | 9 |
| 3 | 3 | GREAT HARVEST | 11.5% | 8.72 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | NOIR RIDER | 9.5% | 10.49 | 8 |
| 5 | 2 | GREEN ENVY | 7.0% | 14.22 | 11 |
| 6 | 10 | SPICY GRILL | 6.6% | 15.07 | 1 |
| 7 | 1 | FALCON TURBO | 4.8% | 20.76 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | SHADOW RUNNER | 4.8% | 20.89 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | GOOD SHOT | 3.6% | 27.56 | 7 |
| 10 | 9 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 3.0% | 33.69 | 12 |
| 11 | 5 | CAPTAIN LONG | 2.2% | 44.70 | 5 |
| 12 | 7 | INESTIMABLE | 0.8% | 129.96 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 58
PLACE
1 50.5
8 19
10 18.5
QUINELLA
8,10 166.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 159.5
1,10 140
8,10 55
FORECAST
10,8 380
TIERCE
10,8,1 3,668
TRIO
1,8,10 764
FIRST 4
1,8,10,12 1,692
QUARTET
10,8,1,12 31,334
全部彩池（另 5 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,8/1,8,10 15,589
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 27
5TH DOUBLE
1/8 48.5
1/10 365
TRIPLE TRIO
5,8,10/1,5,8/1,8,10 4,502,560
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
5,8,10/1,5,8/Any Combination 23,388