沙田 · 2021-12-29 · 22:58
第 8場
2021-12-29沙田第8場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由V Borges策騎、J Size訓練的ELON勝出，贏出HD。CZARSON獲得亞軍；MAN STAR獲得季軍。4.3倍大熱門WHEN YOU BELIEVE跑獲第9名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | ELON E/P 1.08.18 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 11 | 5.6 | HD |
| 2 | 1 | CZARSON CP/TT H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 2 | 7.8 | HD |
| 3 | 4 | MAN STAR V K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 3 | 4.6 | N |
| 4 | 7 | MAJESTIC STAR A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 4 | 8.1 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 7 | 40.0 | 1 |
| 6 | 12 | MEGA HEART XB/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 9 | 25.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | SUPER DOBBIN B R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 5 | 18.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | GUNNISON K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 6 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | WHEN YOU BELIEVE CP/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 8 | 4.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | SUNSET WATCH B M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 1 | 15.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | TRANSCENDENT CP/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 10 | 19.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 2 | GOLD CHEST CP/TT M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 12 | 20.0 | 6-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | WHEN YOU BELIEVE | 27.3% | 3.66 | 9 |
| 2 | 4 | MAN STAR | 11.3% | 8.84 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | ELON | 9.5% | 10.53 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | CZARSON | 9.4% | 10.67 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | SUNSET WATCH | 8.9% | 11.23 | 10 |
| 6 | 7 | MAJESTIC STAR | 6.8% | 14.78 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | GUNNISON | 6.5% | 15.34 | 8 |
| 8 | 2 | GOLD CHEST | 6.1% | 16.49 | 12 |
| 9 | 5 | TRANSCENDENT | 5.5% | 18.07 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | MEGA HEART | 3.2% | 31.00 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE | 2.9% | 34.18 | 5 |
| 12 | 11 | SUPER DOBBIN | 2.6% | 38.62 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 56.5
PLACE
1 24.5
4 17
9 20
QUINELLA
1,9 220
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 68.5
1,9 76.5
4,9 54.5
FORECAST
9,1 416
TIERCE
9,1,4 1,878
TRIO
1,4,9 314
FIRST 4
1,4,7,9 565
QUARTET
9,1,4,7 12,684
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 19.5
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,8,10/1,4,9 1,057,673
7TH DOUBLE
5/1 161
5/9 1,319.5
SIX UP
5,11/11,13/4,9/3,5/5,10/1,9 82,079
10 [B Shinn] —
TREBLE
3/5/1 572
3/5/9 4,681