沙田 · 2023-02-26 · 14:31
第 4場
2023-02-26沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、A S Cruz訓練的BRAVE DREAMS勝出，贏出1。JUNEAU FLASH獲得亞軍；ROUND THE GLOBE獲得季軍。頭馬以4.2倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BRAVE DREAMS TT 1.09.09 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 1 | 4.2 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | JUNEAU FLASH J Melham · J Size | J Melham | J Size | 9 | 8.5 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | ROUND THE GLOBE K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 5 | 4.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | LOST CHILD H Bowman · C W Chang | H Bowman | C W Chang | 4 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | AWESOME TREASURE H2/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 14 | 62.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | TRUST ME B/H A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 2 | 7.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | HAPPY FOR ALL H-/CP1/TT J McDonald · J Richards | J McDonald | J Richards | 12 | 6.4 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | MULTIDARLING C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 13 | 20.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 14 | SOARING TOWER B V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 10 | 28.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | NOBLE ONE H-/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 22.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | BEAT HOLLOW H- K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 8 | 28.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 13 | SUPER HIGHWAY H-/V/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 11 | 27.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 13 | 12 | I GIVE PC/TT S De Sousa · P C Ng | S De Sousa | P C Ng | 6 | 33.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 14 | 9 | SOARING PENGSHAN SR1/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 3 | 73.0 | 8 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BRAVE DREAMS | 23.0% | 4.35 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | JUNEAU FLASH | 15.5% | 6.45 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | HAPPY FOR ALL | 14.5% | 6.89 | 7 |
| 4 | 7 | ROUND THE GLOBE | 8.2% | 12.24 | 3 |
| 5 | 13 | SUPER HIGHWAY | 6.2% | 16.15 | 12 |
| 6 | 10 | TRUST ME | 5.8% | 17.18 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | LOST CHILD | 5.6% | 17.98 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | I GIVE | 4.8% | 20.65 | 13 |
| 9 | 8 | NOBLE ONE | 3.8% | 26.26 | 10 |
| 10 | 14 | SOARING TOWER | 3.6% | 27.87 | 9 |
| 11 | 6 | MULTIDARLING | 3.3% | 30.42 | 8 |
| 12 | 9 | SOARING PENGSHAN | 2.7% | 37.11 | 14 |
| 13 | 2 | AWESOME TREASURE | 1.7% | 59.01 | 5 |
| 14 | 11 | BEAT HOLLOW | 1.3% | 75.57 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 42.5
PLACE
1 27
3 17.5
7 18.5
QUINELLA
1,3 139.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 52.5
1,7 73.5
3,7 46
FORECAST
3,1 204
TIERCE
3,1,7 993
TRIO
1,3,7 203
FIRST 4
1,3,5,7 432
QUARTET
3,1,7,5 8,083
全部彩池（另 3 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
6,7,9/1,3,7 2,370
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 23
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
9/1 12.5
9/3 61.5