沙田 · 2023-02-26 · 16:48
第 8場
2023-02-26沙田第8場，Class 3，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由B Shinn策騎、C Fownes訓練的STRAIGHT ARRON勝出，贏出1-1/4。NATURAL STORM獲得亞軍；SNAFFLES獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.8倍大熱門NICHOLSON RETURNS跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | STRAIGHT ARRON 後段發力 SB- 1.47.68 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 1 | 6.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | NATURAL STORM 後段發力 B J Melham · P F Yiu | J Melham | P F Yiu | 6 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 9 | SNAFFLES 後段發力 K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 12 | 25.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | NICHOLSON RETURNS 後段發力 B L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 4 | 3.8 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | HAPPY TOGETHER TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 9 | 6.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | ESCAPE ROUTE 後段發力 H V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 2 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | ROMANTIC CHARM B1/TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 5 | 9.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | WOODFIRE BRO TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 3 | 9.6 | 4 |
| 9 | 1 | SUPERBELLA B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 10 | 56.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | S J TOURBILLON B/XB/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 14 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 14 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 後段發力 XB S De Sousa · C W Chang | S De Sousa | C W Chang | 8 | 47.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | ENTRUSTED 後段發力 CP/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 13 | 46.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 2 | WINNING DRAGON 早段領放 H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 11 | 52.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 14 | 13 | QUANTUM PATCH Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 7 | 12.0 | 11-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | NICHOLSON RETURNS | 13.9% | 7.18 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | WOODFIRE BRO | 12.6% | 7.96 | 8 |
| 3 | 7 | HAPPY TOGETHER | 10.8% | 9.29 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | NATURAL STORM | 10.1% | 9.88 | 2 |
| 5 | 13 | QUANTUM PATCH | 9.7% | 10.33 | 14 |
| 6 | 9 | SNAFFLES | 7.4% | 13.60 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | S J TOURBILLON | 6.6% | 15.25 | 10 |
| 8 | 4 | ROMANTIC CHARM | 6.1% | 16.39 | 7 |
| 9 | 2 | WINNING DRAGON | 5.0% | 20.20 | 13 |
| 10 | 6 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 4.4% | 22.68 | 6 |
| 11 | 14 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 4.4% | 22.72 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | ENTRUSTED | 4.0% | 25.24 | 12 |
| 13 | 1 | SUPERBELLA | 3.4% | 29.49 | 9 |
| 14 | 5 | STRAIGHT ARRON | 1.8% | 55.12 | 1 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 65.5
PLACE
5 26
9 69.5
11 31.5
QUINELLA
5,11 436
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 285
5,11 138.5
9,11 421.5
FORECAST
5,11 893
TIERCE
5,11,9 14,437
TRIO
5,9,11 2,988
FIRST 4
5,9,11,12 4,287
QUARTET
5,11,9,12 79,424
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 18.5
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,5/5,9,11 35,510
7TH DOUBLE
1/5 211
1/11 47