Sha Tin · 2023-02-26 · 16:48
Race 8
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | STRAIGHT ARRON Closed strongly SB- 1.47.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 1 | 6.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B J Melham · P F Yiu | J Melham | P F Yiu | 6 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | SNAFFLES Closed strongly K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 12 | 25.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 4 | 3.8 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | HAPPY TOGETHER TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 9 | 6.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 2 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | ROMANTIC CHARM B1/TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 5 | 9.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | WOODFIRE BRO TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 3 | 9.6 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | SUPERBELLA B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 10 | 56.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | S J TOURBILLON B/XB/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 14 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB S De Sousa · C W Chang | S De Sousa | C W Chang | 8 | 47.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 13 | 46.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 0 | WINNING DRAGON Led early H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 11 | 52.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 14 | 0 | QUANTUM PATCH Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 7 | 12.0 | 11-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-26 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. STRAIGHT ARRON, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with NATURAL STORM second and SNAFFLES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite NICHOLSON RETURNS finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | NICHOLSON RETURNS | 13.9% | 7.18 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | WOODFIRE BRO | 12.6% | 7.96 | 8 |
| 3 | 0 | HAPPY TOGETHER | 10.8% | 9.29 | 5 |
| 4 | 0 | NATURAL STORM | 10.1% | 9.88 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | QUANTUM PATCH | 9.7% | 10.33 | 14 |
| 6 | 0 | SNAFFLES | 7.4% | 13.60 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | S J TOURBILLON | 6.6% | 15.25 | 10 |
| 8 | 0 | ROMANTIC CHARM | 6.1% | 16.39 | 7 |
| 9 | 0 | WINNING DRAGON | 5.0% | 20.20 | 13 |
| 10 | 0 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 4.4% | 22.68 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 4.4% | 22.72 | 11 |
| 12 | 0 | ENTRUSTED | 4.0% | 25.24 | 12 |
| 13 | 0 | SUPERBELLA | 3.4% | 29.49 | 9 |
| 14 | 0 | STRAIGHT ARRON | 1.8% | 55.12 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 65.5
PLACE
5 26
9 69.5
11 31.5
QUINELLA
5,11 436
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 285
5,11 138.5
9,11 421.5
FORECAST
5,11 893
TIERCE
5,11,9 14,437
TRIO
5,9,11 2,988
FIRST 4
5,9,11,12 4,287
QUARTET
5,11,9,12 79,424
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 18.5
A2 —
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,5/5,9,11 35,510
7TH DOUBLE
1/5 211
1/11 47