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Sha Tin · 2023-02-26 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 10 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-26 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. TRUE LEGEND, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-1/4, with ROYAL BOMB second and YES WE CAN third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite ROYAL BOMB finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.37.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 TRUE LEGEND Wire to wire B 1.37.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · F C Lor 9 3.6 2-1/4
2 4 ROYAL BOMB Closed strongly TT J Melham · C Fownes 10 2.8 2-1/4
3 10 YES WE CAN Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · T P Yung 1 8.1 2-1/4
4 9 DECRYPT Closed strongly XB/TT A Badel · P C Ng 5 15.0 4
5 2 SO WE JOY Closed strongly H/XB/TT C Y Ho · C W Chang 7 8.1 4-1/2
6 5 CAN'T GO WONG CP/TT- K Teetan · F C Lor 8 40.0 4-1/2
7 7 READY TO WIN CP-/XB/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 4 27.0 5-1/4
8 8 SKYEY SUPREME B/TT H N Wong · K W Lui 6 24.0 5-1/4
9 3 LEADING FORTUNE PC S De Sousa · J Size 2 17.0 5-1/4
10 6 NORDIC STAR TT Z Purton · C S Shum 3 8.4 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TRUE LEGEND2. ROYAL BOMB+2.25L3. YES WE CAN+2.25L4. DECRYPT+4L5. SO WE JOY+4.5L6. CAN'T GO WONG+4.5L7. READY TO WIN+5.25L8. SKYEY SUPREME+5.25L9. LEADING FORTUNE+5.25L10. NORDIC STAR+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick NORDIC STAR (20.4%) finished 10th — the winner TRUE LEGEND was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 NORDIC STAR 20.4% 4.90 10
2 1 TRUE LEGEND 15.5% 6.47 1
3 4 ROYAL BOMB 14.6% 6.86 2
4 10 YES WE CAN 11.0% 9.07 3
5 3 LEADING FORTUNE 9.4% 10.65 9
6 7 READY TO WIN 9.0% 11.16 7
7 8 SKYEY SUPREME 8.2% 12.21 8
8 2 SO WE JOY 5.3% 18.89 5
9 9 DECRYPT 4.4% 22.96 4
10 5 CAN'T GO WONG 2.3% 43.40 6
NORDIC STARTRUE LEGEND — wonROYAL BOMBYES WE CANLEADING FORTUNEREADY TO WINSKYEY SUPREMESO WE JOYDECRYPTCAN'T GO WONG

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 36.5

PLACE

1 15

4 14

10 21

QUINELLA

1,4 57.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 27.5

1,10 47.5

4,10 40

FORECAST

1,4 153

TIERCE

1,4,10 479

TRIO

1,4,10 113

FIRST 4

1,4,9,10 338

QUARTET

1,4,10,9 4,556

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE

13/1 2,694

13/4 403

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,13/1,4,10 952,001

3 PICK 1

A1 16

A2

A3