Sha Tin · 2023-02-26 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course A+3 8 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-26 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BEAUTY ETERNAL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 2, with CALIFORNIA TEN second and SPIRITED EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.33.40

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	BEAUTY ETERNAL Closed strongly 1.33.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	2	120 lb	1.1	2
2	6	CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz	L Ferraris	A S Cruz	4	123 lb	12.0	2
3	7	SPIRITED EXPRESS Closed strongly B A Badel · P F Yiu	A Badel	P F Yiu	5	122 lb	28.0	2
4	5	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Led early B M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	3	126 lb	22.0	2-1/2
5	1	FANTASTIC TREASURE Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes	L Hewitson	D A Hayes	1	133 lb	23.0	2-3/4
6	2	CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly B C L Chau · K W Lui	C L Chau	K W Lui	7	129 lb	53.0	3
7	8	THE ROCK B Shinn · C Fownes	B Shinn	C Fownes	8	121 lb	43.0	9-1/4
8	3	MR ASCENDENCY CP S De Sousa · P F Yiu	S De Sousa	P F Yiu	6	128 lb	11.0	11
—	4	BEAUTY LIVE J McDonald · F C Lor	J McDonald	F C Lor	—	127 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick BEAUTY ETERNAL (64.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	BEAUTY ETERNAL	64.5%	1.55	1	1.1
2	3	MR ASCENDENCY	11.7%	8.51	8	11.0
3	6	CALIFORNIA TEN	5.7%	17.44	2	12.0
4	7	SPIRITED EXPRESS	5.2%	19.21	3	28.0
5	5	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S	4.8%	20.70	4	22.0
6	8	THE ROCK	2.9%	34.85	7	43.0
7	2	CHEERFUL DAYS	2.8%	35.59	6	53.0
8	1	FANTASTIC TREASURE	2.3%	44.05	5	23.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 11.5

PLACE

6 18.5

7 33

9 10.1

QUINELLA

6,9 48.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 85

6,9 22

7,9 41

FORECAST

9,6 49

TIERCE

9,6,7 290

TRIO

6,7,9 179

FIRST 4

5,6,7,9 182

QUARTET

9,6,7,5 1,216

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

1/6 54.5

1/9 52

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 11.5

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