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Sha Tin · 2023-02-26 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-26 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FORTUNE PRESIDENT, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by Y S Tsui, won by SH, with BILLIONAIRE SECRET second and EMERGING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite KILLER INSTINCT finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.38.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 FORTUNE PRESIDENT Closed strongly 1.38.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 9 52.0 SH
2 6 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB J Melham · P C Ng 12 15.0 SH
3 2 EMERGING Closed strongly H/TT S De Sousa · R Gibson 11 51.0 N
4 1 AMAZING TEENS Closed strongly H/P/TT L Currie · J Size 8 10.0 1-1/4
5 14 SMART FOLKS B/SR A Badel · C W Chang 14 13.0 1-3/4
6 7 BRILLIANT PIONEER H K Teetan · C H Yip 4 39.0 1-3/4
7 5 KILLER INSTINCT Closed strongly V/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 10 3.3 3-3/4
8 11 GREEN LASER TT C Y Ho · W Y So 7 16.0 4
9 10 M M NEBULA Led early B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 2 14.0 5
10 8 SUN OF MAKFI B/XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 3 13.0 6
11 4 NICE BIRDIE B1/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 6 3.9 6-1/4
12 12 LUCK STAR M Chadwick · T P Yung 5 9.6 8
13 9 PACKING MONKEYKING K C Leung · L Ho 1 25.0 11
14 3 STARFIRE GEMS H/P/TT R Maia · J Richards 13 114.0 19

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FORTUNE PRESIDENT2. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+0.1L3. EMERGING+0.05L4. AMAZING TEENS+1.25L5. SMART FOLKS+1.75L6. BRILLIANT PIONEER+1.75L7. KILLER INSTINCT+3.75L8. GREEN LASER+4L9. M M NEBULA+5L10. SUN OF MAKFI+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick NICE BIRDIE (23.6%) finished 11th — the winner FORTUNE PRESIDENT was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 NICE BIRDIE 23.6% 4.24 11
2 11 GREEN LASER 11.4% 8.76 8
3 9 PACKING MONKEYKING 8.6% 11.60 13
4 5 KILLER INSTINCT 8.2% 12.12 7
5 8 SUN OF MAKFI 7.8% 12.82 10
6 6 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 6.9% 14.56 2
7 1 AMAZING TEENS 6.0% 16.72 4
8 2 EMERGING 5.8% 17.38 3
9 14 SMART FOLKS 5.7% 17.56 5
10 10 M M NEBULA 5.2% 19.16 9
11 12 LUCK STAR 5.0% 19.81 12
12 7 BRILLIANT PIONEER 2.1% 47.62 6
13 13 FORTUNE PRESIDENT 1.9% 51.34 1
14 3 STARFIRE GEMS 1.7% 58.14 14
NICE BIRDIEGREEN LASERPACKING MONKEYKINGKILLER INSTINCTSUN OF MAKFIBILLIONAIRE SECRETAMAZING TEENSEMERGINGSMART FOLKSM M NEBULALUCK STARBRILLIANT PIONEERFORTUNE PRESIDENT — wonSTARFIRE GEMS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 526

PLACE

2 120.5

6 45

13 134

QUINELLA

6,13 3,964

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 733

2,13 1,832

6,13 995.5

FORECAST

13,6 8,322

TIERCE

13,6,2 229,073

TRIO

2,6,13 38,703

FIRST 4

1,2,6,13 67,311

QUARTET

13,6,2,1

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 24