跑馬地 · 2023-09-20 · 14:54
第 8場
2023-09-20跑馬地第8場，Class 2，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、C S Shum訓練的HELENE FEELING勝出，贏出1-1/4。NEARLY FINE獲得亞軍；RISE BRETHREN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.2倍大熱門RISE BRETHREN跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | HELENE FEELING 後段發力 TT 1.39.17 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 11 | 5.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | NEARLY FINE 後段發力 TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 1 | 9.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | RISE BRETHREN 後段發力 TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 4 | 3.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | SPIRITED EXPRESS 後段發力 B A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 9 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | GALAXY WITNESS 後段發力 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 10 | 4.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | BUTTERFIELD 後段發力 CP/TT L Ferraris · C S Shum | L Ferraris | C S Shum | 6 | 31.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 2 | TELECOM FIGHTERS 早段領放 L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 12 | 26.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 1 | THE IRISHMAN H/XB/TT C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 7 | 8.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | NATURAL STORM 後段發力 B K De Melo · P F Yiu | K De Melo | P F Yiu | 2 | 39.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 8 | TURIN REDSUN B/TT K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 8 | 49.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | BERLIN TANGO B/H/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 3 | 12.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 5 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT V/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 5 | 41.0 | 7-3/4 |
| — | 0 | LOOKING GREAT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | RISE BRETHREN | 23.8% | 4.20 | 3 |
| 2 | 11 | HELENE FEELING | 14.6% | 6.86 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | BUTTERFIELD | 13.0% | 7.72 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | BERLIN TANGO | 10.6% | 9.39 | 11 |
| 5 | 1 | THE IRISHMAN | 7.1% | 14.17 | 8 |
| 6 | 3 | SPIRITED EXPRESS | 6.2% | 16.07 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | GALAXY WITNESS | 6.1% | 16.30 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | NEARLY FINE | 5.0% | 20.14 | 2 |
| 9 | 12 | NATURAL STORM | 4.4% | 22.49 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT | 3.1% | 32.44 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | TURIN REDSUN | 3.1% | 32.63 | 10 |
| 12 | 2 | TELECOM FIGHTERS | 3.1% | 32.72 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 59.5
PLACE
6 15
10 25.5
11 23
QUINELLA
10,11 326
QUINELLA PLACE
6,10 70.5
6,11 53.5
10,11 103.5
FORECAST
11,10 526
TIERCE
11,10,6 3,073
TRIO
6,10,11 439
FIRST 4
3,6,10,11 1,005
QUARTET
11,10,6,3 23,189
全部彩池（另 4 項）
2ND TREBLE
2/1/10 799
2/1/11 1,266
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,7,10/6,10,11 21,818
7TH DOUBLE
1/10 93
1/11 199.5
SIX UP
3,5/8,9/1,3/2,6/1,10/10,11 5,442
5/9/1/2/1/11 3,045,399
1 [C Fownes] —
2 [H Bowman] —