跑馬地 · 2023-09-27 · 14:54
第 9場
2023-09-27跑馬地第9場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、C S Shum訓練的LIGHTNING BOLT勝出，贏出SH。REWARD SMILE獲得亞軍；SWEET BRIAR獲得季軍。2.7倍大熱門SWEET BRIAR跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | LIGHTNING BOLT TT 1.09.60 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 8 | 16.0 | SH |
| 2 | 1 | REWARD SMILE TT H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 4 | 4.5 | SH |
| 3 | 10 | SWEET BRIAR B/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 6 | 2.7 | N |
| 4 | 4 | SIXTH GENERATION H/CP1/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 9 | 24.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | SOLAR PARTNER TT K De Melo · P F Yiu | K De Melo | P F Yiu | 2 | 4.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | FAMILY FOLKS CP A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 10 | 30.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | STREET SCREAM B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 3 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | VICTORY SCHOLARS V K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 11 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | SEIZING THE MOMENT B K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 7 | 15.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | AMAZING ACE B M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 1 | 34.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | GALLANT CROWN B M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 5 | 62.0 | 8-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SOLAR PARTNER | 22.8% | 4.39 | 5 |
| 2 | 10 | SWEET BRIAR | 20.2% | 4.95 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | LIGHTNING BOLT | 15.7% | 6.38 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | SIXTH GENERATION | 11.5% | 8.69 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | REWARD SMILE | 10.6% | 9.46 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | VICTORY SCHOLARS | 6.2% | 16.24 | 8 |
| 7 | 3 | SEIZING THE MOMENT | 4.8% | 21.02 | 9 |
| 8 | 5 | FAMILY FOLKS | 3.4% | 29.57 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | STREET SCREAM | 3.3% | 30.71 | 7 |
| 10 | 8 | GALLANT CROWN | 1.0% | 104.61 | 11 |
| 11 | 11 | AMAZING ACE | 0.7% | 140.39 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 163.5
PLACE
1 17
6 35
10 13
QUINELLA
1,6 322.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 97
1,10 35.5
6,10 83.5
FORECAST
6,1 704
TIERCE
6,1,10 3,305
TRIO
1,6,10 297
FIRST 4
1,4,6,10 1,132
QUARTET
6,1,10,4 38,464
全部彩池（另 4 項）
2ND TREBLE
7/7/1 4,275
7/7/6 50,591
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,7/1,6,10 1,227,282
8TH DOUBLE
7/1 449.5
7/6 7,368
SIX UP
3,7/10,11/3,7/7,10/3,7/1,6 229,438
1 [Z Purton] —
2 [C Fownes] —