沙田 · 2025-11-09 · 08:45
第 8場
2025-11-09沙田第8場，Class 4，途程1400米。由H Bowman策騎、C H Yip訓練的SUPER LOVE勝出。STRATHPEFFER獲得亞軍；SUPERB GUY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.7倍大熱門ETALON OR跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SUPER LOVE 後段發力 1:23.07 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H Bowman · C H Yip | H Bowman | C H Yip | 4 | 12.0 | — |
| 2 | 6 | STRATHPEFFER 早段領放 L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 3 | 5.9 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | SUPERB GUY 後段發力 A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 2 | 19.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | ETALON OR 後段發力 A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 13 | 4.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | BETTER AND BETTER 後段發力 Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 12 | 5.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 13 | BOWSER Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 28.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | SMART FAT CAT 後段發力 H Doyle · W K Mo | H Doyle | W K Mo | 7 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | KYRUS TREASURE 後段發力 L Ferraris · D Eustace | L Ferraris | D Eustace | 8 | 82.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | YOUNG BRAVO 後段發力 J Orman · D J Hall | J Orman | D J Hall | 6 | 19.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | POSITIVE SMILE 後段發力 M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 10 | 8.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | EXCEL WONGCHOY H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 5 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | MOUNT EVEREST C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 11 | 8.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | I P O BROS M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 1 | 33.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 14 | 5 | MASSIVE FIRE R Kingscote · C S Shum | R Kingscote | C S Shum | 14 | 138.0 | 36-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | BETTER AND BETTER | 16.2% | 6.19 | 5 |
| 2 | 1 | ETALON OR | 16.0% | 6.25 | 4 |
| 3 | 2 | MOUNT EVEREST | 14.0% | 7.15 | 12 |
| 4 | 9 | SMART FAT CAT | 12.3% | 8.12 | 7 |
| 5 | 6 | STRATHPEFFER | 9.5% | 10.57 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | SUPER LOVE | 7.3% | 13.75 | 1 |
| 7 | 11 | POSITIVE SMILE | 5.5% | 18.21 | 10 |
| 8 | 12 | SUPERB GUY | 4.0% | 25.00 | 3 |
| 9 | 8 | EXCEL WONGCHOY | 3.8% | 26.33 | 11 |
| 10 | 7 | YOUNG BRAVO | 3.1% | 32.17 | 9 |
| 11 | 14 | I P O BROS | 2.6% | 37.85 | 13 |
| 12 | 4 | KYRUS TREASURE | 2.4% | 41.28 | 8 |
| 13 | 13 | BOWSER | 2.3% | 42.70 | 6 |
| 14 | 5 | MASSIVE FIRE | 1.0% | 100.10 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 125.5
PLACE
3 36.5
6 21.5
12 52.5
QUINELLA
3,6 434.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 134
3,12 508
6,12 180.5
FORECAST
3,6 947
TIERCE
3,6,12 16,883
TRIO
3,6,12 2,910
FIRST 4
1,3,6,12 2,750
QUARTET
3,6,12,1 107,734
全部彩池（另 2 項）
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,14/3,6,12 964,558
7TH DOUBLE
14/3 1,133.5
14/6 156