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Sha Tin · 2025-11-09 · 08:45

Race 8

Class 4 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-11-09 was Class 4 over 1400m. SUPER LOVE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C H Yip, won, with STRATHPEFFER second and SUPERB GUY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite ETALON OR finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1:23.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SUPER LOVE Closed strongly 1:23.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C H Yip 4 12.0
2 6 STRATHPEFFER Led early L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 5.9 3/4
3 12 SUPERB GUY Closed strongly A Atzeni · K W Lui 2 19.0 1-1/4
4 1 ETALON OR Closed strongly A Badel · P F Yiu 13 4.7 1-1/4
5 10 BETTER AND BETTER Closed strongly Z Purton · F C Lor 12 5.2 1-1/4
6 13 BOWSER Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 28.0 1-1/4
7 9 SMART FAT CAT Closed strongly H Doyle · W K Mo 7 10.0 1-1/2
8 4 KYRUS TREASURE Closed strongly L Ferraris · D Eustace 8 82.0 2-3/4
9 7 YOUNG BRAVO Closed strongly J Orman · D J Hall 6 19.0 2-3/4
10 11 POSITIVE SMILE Closed strongly M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 8.9 3-1/2
11 8 EXCEL WONGCHOY H Bentley · P C Ng 5 21.0 4-3/4
12 2 MOUNT EVEREST C Y Ho · W Y So 11 8.0 5-3/4
13 14 I P O BROS M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 1 33.0 6-1/2
14 5 MASSIVE FIRE R Kingscote · C S Shum 14 138.0 36-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER LOVE2. STRATHPEFFER+0.75L3. SUPERB GUY+1.25L4. ETALON OR+1.25L5. BETTER AND BETTER+1.25L6. BOWSER+1.25L7. SMART FAT CAT+1.5L8. KYRUS TREASURE+2.75L9. YOUNG BRAVO+2.75L10. POSITIVE SMILE+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick BETTER AND BETTER (16.2%) finished 5th — the winner SUPER LOVE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 BETTER AND BETTER 16.2% 6.19 5
2 1 ETALON OR 16.0% 6.25 4
3 2 MOUNT EVEREST 14.0% 7.15 12
4 9 SMART FAT CAT 12.3% 8.12 7
5 6 STRATHPEFFER 9.5% 10.57 2
6 3 SUPER LOVE 7.3% 13.75 1
7 11 POSITIVE SMILE 5.5% 18.21 10
8 12 SUPERB GUY 4.0% 25.00 3
9 8 EXCEL WONGCHOY 3.8% 26.33 11
10 7 YOUNG BRAVO 3.1% 32.17 9
11 14 I P O BROS 2.6% 37.85 13
12 4 KYRUS TREASURE 2.4% 41.28 8
13 13 BOWSER 2.3% 42.70 6
14 5 MASSIVE FIRE 1.0% 100.10 14
BETTER AND BETTERETALON ORMOUNT EVERESTSMART FAT CATSTRATHPEFFERSUPER LOVE — wonPOSITIVE SMILESUPERB GUYEXCEL WONGCHOYYOUNG BRAVOI P O BROSKYRUS TREASUREBOWSERMASSIVE FIRE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 125.5

PLACE

3 36.5

6 21.5

12 52.5

QUINELLA

3,6 434.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 134

3,12 508

6,12 180.5

FORECAST

3,6 947

TIERCE

3,6,12 16,883

TRIO

3,6,12 2,910

FIRST 4

1,3,6,12 2,750

QUARTET

3,6,12,1 107,734

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,14/3,6,12 964,558

7TH DOUBLE

14/3 1,133.5

14/6 156