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Sha Tin · 2025-11-09 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 5 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-11-09 was Class 5 over 1600m. MR GOOD VIBES, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won, with PANDA LEGEND second and GANGNAM STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite PERFECT PEACH finished 13th.

Result

Official · 1:36.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 MR GOOD VIBES Closed strongly 1:36.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 2 8.7
2 4 PANDA LEGEND Closed strongly R Kingscote · W Y So 11 12.0 N
3 13 GANGNAM STAR Closed strongly K Teetan · P C Ng 7 11.0 N
4 10 HARRY'S HERO Closed strongly K De Melo · P F Yiu 13 35.0 1-1/4
5 1 ONLY U Closed strongly K C Leung · B Crawford 14 6.9 2
6 6 COSMO LIGHT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 6 142.0 2-3/4
7 5 SMART BEAUTY Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 24.0 3
8 12 SUPREME WINNER Closed strongly A Badel · C H Yip 9 47.0 3
9 14 MANYTHANKS FOREVER A Atzeni · W Y So 10 23.0 4
10 9 THE WAY WE WIN Led early H Bentley · J Richards 8 16.0 5
11 8 SMASHING EXPRESS B Avdulla · J Size 1 6.2 6-1/4
12 7 LITTLE FAIRY H Doyle · K H Ting 5 35.0 7-1/2
13 3 PERFECT PEACH Z Purton · C W Chang 3 3.3 8
14 2 CELESTIAL HARMONY P N Wong · D A Hayes 12 9.8 8
14 LAPRAS M Chadwick · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MR GOOD VIBES2. PANDA LEGEND+0.05L3. GANGNAM STAR+0.05L4. HARRY'S HERO+1.25L5. ONLY U+2L6. COSMO LIGHT+2.75L7. SMART BEAUTY+3L8. SUPREME WINNER+3L9. MANYTHANKS FOREVER+4L10. THE WAY WE WIN+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick PERFECT PEACH (34.7%) finished 13th — the winner MR GOOD VIBES was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 PERFECT PEACH 34.7% 2.89 13
2 8 SMASHING EXPRESS 10.6% 9.45 11
3 2 CELESTIAL HARMONY 9.6% 10.38 14
4 1 ONLY U 8.5% 11.83 5
5 4 PANDA LEGEND 5.6% 17.97 2
6 11 MR GOOD VIBES 5.5% 18.25 1
7 5 SMART BEAUTY 5.0% 19.94 7
8 9 THE WAY WE WIN 4.0% 24.99 10
9 10 HARRY'S HERO 3.6% 27.70 4
10 14 MANYTHANKS FOREVER 3.6% 28.13 9
11 13 GANGNAM STAR 3.5% 28.53 3
12 7 LITTLE FAIRY 2.3% 42.77 12
13 12 SUPREME WINNER 2.2% 45.30 8
14 6 COSMO LIGHT 1.4% 71.95 6
PERFECT PEACHSMASHING EXPRESSCELESTIAL HARMONYONLY UPANDA LEGENDMR GOOD VIBES — wonSMART BEAUTYTHE WAY WE WINHARRY'S HEROMANYTHANKS FOREVERGANGNAM STARLITTLE FAIRYSUPREME WINNERCOSMO LIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 87

PLACE

4 38

11 26.5

13 37

QUINELLA

4,11 692.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,11 218

4,13 276.5

11,13 193.5

FORECAST

11,4 1,271

TIERCE

11,4,13 19,685

TRIO

4,11,13 3,403

FIRST 4

4,10,11,13 22,155

QUARTET

11,4,13,10 280,083