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Sha Tin · 2025-11-09 · 09:55

Race 10

Class 2 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2025-11-09 was Class 2 over 1400m. LIGHT YEARS CHARM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D Eustace, won, with AERIS NOVA second and MID WINTER WIND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1:21.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 LIGHT YEARS CHARM Closed strongly 1:21.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D Eustace 3 3.7
2 11 AERIS NOVA Closed strongly K C Leung · W K Mo 4 10.0 1/2
3 14 MID WINTER WIND Closed strongly M Chadwick · M Newnham 6 45.0 1-3/4
4 12 BEAUTY CRESCENT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 5.6 2-1/4
5 8 STEPS AHEAD L Hewitson · K W Lui 13 6.6 2-1/4
6 5 DROMBEG BANNER Led early H Doyle · P C Ng 10 7.1 2-1/2
7 13 MICKLEY Closed strongly M L Yeung · J Size 14 21.0 4
8 9 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT Closed strongly A Atzeni · K L Man 12 6.7 4-1/4
9 3 HEALTHY HAPPY C L Chau · F C Lor 5 27.0 4-1/2
10 7 YOUNG CHAMPION B Avdulla · J Size 11 19.0 5-1/2
11 10 SHANWAH Closed strongly R Kingscote · D J Whyte 9 57.0 7-1/2
12 6 KAHOLO ANGEL E C W Wong · C Fownes 7 57.0 7-3/4
13 4 MUGEN P N Wong · P C Ng 2 43.0 11-3/4
14 1 VICTOR THE WINNER K Teetan · D Eustace 8 72.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LIGHT YEARS CHARM2. AERIS NOVA+0.5L3. MID WINTER WIND+1.75L4. BEAUTY CRESCENT+2.25L5. STEPS AHEAD+2.25L6. DROMBEG BANNER+2.5L7. MICKLEY+4L8. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT+4.25L9. HEALTHY HAPPY+4.5L10. YOUNG CHAMPION+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick LIGHT YEARS CHARM (30.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 LIGHT YEARS CHARM 30.8% 3.25 1
2 12 BEAUTY CRESCENT 19.2% 5.20 4
3 8 STEPS AHEAD 7.7% 12.99 5
4 5 DROMBEG BANNER 6.2% 16.00 6
5 6 KAHOLO ANGEL 5.8% 17.13 12
6 13 MICKLEY 4.2% 23.95 7
7 9 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 4.1% 24.12 8
8 11 AERIS NOVA 4.1% 24.63 2
9 1 VICTOR THE WINNER 3.9% 25.32 14
10 7 YOUNG CHAMPION 3.8% 26.57 10
11 3 HEALTHY HAPPY 3.1% 31.86 9
12 4 MUGEN 2.6% 38.97 13
13 14 MID WINTER WIND 2.3% 43.00 3
14 10 SHANWAH 2.1% 47.88 11
LIGHT YEARS CHARM — wonBEAUTY CRESCENTSTEPS AHEADDROMBEG BANNERKAHOLO ANGELMICKLEYCHIU CHOW SPIRITAERIS NOVAVICTOR THE WINNERYOUNG CHAMPIONHEALTHY HAPPYMUGENMID WINTER WINDSHANWAH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 37.5

PLACE

2 17

11 27.5

14 144.5

QUINELLA

2,11 201

QUINELLA PLACE

2,11 74

2,14 351

11,14 594

FORECAST

2,11 318

TIERCE

2,11,14 10,597

TRIO

2,11,14 2,527

FIRST 4

2,11,12,14 2,782

QUARTET

2,11,14,12 51,975

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

3/14/2 23,723

3/14/11 9,516

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,14/2,11,14 475,778

9TH DOUBLE

14/2 1,583

14/11 705.5

SIX UP

3,5/4,10/3,14/3,6/5,14/2,11 116,388

1 [J Size]

1 [Z Purton]