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Sha Tin · 2025-11-09 · 09:20

Race 9

Class 3 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2025-11-09 was Class 3 over 1400m. THRIVING BROTHERS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C H Yip, won, with LUCY IN THE SKY second and LITTLE PARADISE third. The winner led throughout. The 2.4 favourite LITTLE PARADISE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1:22.93
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 THRIVING BROTHERS Wire to wire 1:22.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C H Yip 10 31.0
2 5 LUCY IN THE SKY H Bowman · Y S Tsui 11 13.0 HD
3 2 LITTLE PARADISE Closed strongly Z Purton · K H Ting 8 2.4 N
4 11 TIN FOOK K Teetan · D J Hall 4 6.6 1-1/4
5 12 PRAY FOR JUSTICE D Probert · D Eustace 7 47.0 2-1/2
6 13 LUCKY SAM GOR Closed strongly A Atzeni · M Newnham 9 3.4 2-3/4
7 1 JUNEAU PRIDE Closed strongly B Avdulla · J Size 12 16.0 3
8 3 THE BOOM BOX Closed strongly C Y Ho · W Y So 2 19.0 5-3/4
9 8 WIN EASE Closed strongly L Hewitson · K W Lui 14 226.0 5-3/4
10 7 COLOURFUL GAN H Doyle · D J Whyte 6 52.0 7
11 9 NOVA KNIGHT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 3 165.0 8
12 6 PANACEA E C W Wong · P F Yiu 5 182.0 8-1/4
13 10 REAL GENTLEMAN C L Chau · K L Man 1 111.0 8-1/2
14 4 ANODE R Kingscote · C S Shum 13 15.0 18

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THRIVING BROTHERS2. LUCY IN THE SKY+0.2L3. LITTLE PARADISE+0.05L4. TIN FOOK+1.25L5. PRAY FOR JUSTICE+2.5L6. LUCKY SAM GOR+2.75L7. JUNEAU PRIDE+3L8. THE BOOM BOX+5.75L9. WIN EASE+5.75L10. COLOURFUL GAN+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick LITTLE PARADISE (46.9%) finished 3rd — the winner THRIVING BROTHERS was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 LITTLE PARADISE 46.9% 2.13 3
2 13 LUCKY SAM GOR 15.0% 6.67 6
3 11 TIN FOOK 7.6% 13.14 4
4 1 JUNEAU PRIDE 5.3% 18.99 7
5 7 COLOURFUL GAN 4.2% 23.59 10
6 5 LUCY IN THE SKY 4.1% 24.14 2
7 3 THE BOOM BOX 4.0% 25.11 8
8 4 ANODE 3.4% 29.07 14
9 14 THRIVING BROTHERS 3.2% 31.73 1
10 10 REAL GENTLEMAN 2.0% 50.29 13
11 12 PRAY FOR JUSTICE 1.4% 69.68 5
12 6 PANACEA 1.2% 84.11 12
13 8 WIN EASE 0.9% 114.71 9
14 9 NOVA KNIGHT 0.8% 121.31 11
LITTLE PARADISELUCKY SAM GORTIN FOOKJUNEAU PRIDECOLOURFUL GANLUCY IN THE SKYTHE BOOM BOXANODETHRIVING BROTHERS — wonREAL GENTLEMANPRAY FOR JUSTICEPANACEAWIN EASENOVA KNIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 312.5

PLACE

2 13.5

5 35

14 72

QUINELLA

5,14 2,554.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 69

2,14 162.5

5,14 556

FORECAST

14,5 5,324

TIERCE

14,5,2 23,206

TRIO

2,5,14 1,478

FIRST 4

2,5,11,14 1,839

QUARTET

14,5,2,11 101,400

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

3/5 388.5

3/14 3,384