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Sha Tin · 2025-11-09 · 06:35

Race 4

Class 4 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-11-09 was Class 4 over 1600m. THE AUSPICIOUS, ridden by J Orman and trained by Y S Tsui, won, with AUDACIOUS PURSUIT second and GLORIASTAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite INNO SUPER finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1:35.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 THE AUSPICIOUS Closed strongly 1:35.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · Y S Tsui 14 13.0
2 9 AUDACIOUS PURSUIT Closed strongly H Bowman · C Fownes 13 6.1 HD
3 8 GLORIASTAR Closed strongly L Ferraris · M Newnham 4 7.1 3-1/2
4 7 CHINA WIN Closed strongly H Doyle · D A Hayes 12 24.0 5-1/4
5 6 HAPPY UNIVERSE R Kingscote · K H Ting 7 6.1 5-1/2
6 10 INNO SUPER Closed strongly Z Purton · D Eustace 11 4.0 5-3/4
7 3 BEAUTY VIVA Closed strongly Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 16.0 5-3/4
8 14 BEAUTY MISSILE A Badel · B Crawford 2 6.6 6-3/4
9 4 FIGHTING MACHINE Closed strongly P N Wong · P C Ng 3 24.0 6-3/4
10 11 GALLANT EPOCH K De Melo · K W Lui 5 13.0 7
11 1 FLYING KNIGHT H Bentley · W K Mo 8 37.0 7
12 2 THE LION KING M Chadwick · F C Lor 1 99.0 9-3/4
13 13 TURF PHOENIX H T Mo · W Y So 10 115.0 15-3/4
14 12 GOR GOR Led early M L Yeung · J Richards 6 128.0 24-1/4
11 VOLCANIC SPARK M F Poon · P F Yiu

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE AUSPICIOUS2. AUDACIOUS PURSUIT+0.2L3. GLORIASTAR+3.5L4. CHINA WIN+5.25L5. HAPPY UNIVERSE+5.5L6. INNO SUPER+5.75L7. BEAUTY VIVA+5.75L8. BEAUTY MISSILE+6.75L9. FIGHTING MACHINE+6.75L10. GALLANT EPOCH+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick INNO SUPER (24.0%) finished 6th — the winner THE AUSPICIOUS was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 INNO SUPER 24.0% 4.17 6
2 6 HAPPY UNIVERSE 12.7% 7.88 5
3 14 BEAUTY MISSILE 11.1% 9.03 8
4 9 AUDACIOUS PURSUIT 9.0% 11.16 2
5 8 GLORIASTAR 8.1% 12.30 3
6 7 CHINA WIN 7.0% 14.34 4
7 5 THE AUSPICIOUS 6.5% 15.33 1
8 3 BEAUTY VIVA 6.5% 15.38 7
9 11 GALLANT EPOCH 4.0% 24.79 10
10 4 FIGHTING MACHINE 3.8% 26.24 9
11 1 FLYING KNIGHT 2.6% 39.04 11
12 13 TURF PHOENIX 2.3% 43.12 13
13 2 THE LION KING 1.4% 73.49 12
14 12 GOR GOR 1.1% 90.62 14
INNO SUPERHAPPY UNIVERSEBEAUTY MISSILEAUDACIOUS PURSUITGLORIASTARCHINA WINTHE AUSPICIOUS — wonBEAUTY VIVAGALLANT EPOCHFIGHTING MACHINEFLYING KNIGHTTURF PHOENIXTHE LION KINGGOR GOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 135

PLACE

5 32.5

8 23.5

9 23

QUINELLA

5,9 453

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 213.5

5,9 133.5

8,9 86.5

FORECAST

5,9 944

TIERCE

5,9,8 8,725

TRIO

5,8,9 1,313

FIRST 4

5,7,8,9 5,354

QUARTET

5,9,8,7 141,442

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

7,9,14/5,8,9 689,735

3RD DOUBLE

14/5 3,572.5

14/9 523.5