沙田 · 2026-03-01 · 06:30
CITI ULTIMA HANDICAP
第 5場
2026-03-01沙田第5場「CITI ULTIMA HANDICAP」，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由H Bowman策騎、W K Mo訓練的CONRAD PATCH勝出。HAPPY SHOOTER獲得亞軍；INVICTUS DRAGON獲得季軍。頭馬以3.6倍大熱姿態勝出。
場地詳情及賽日變動（1）
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CONRAD PATCH TT 1:09.77 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H Bowman · W K Mo | H Bowman | W K Mo | 7 | 3.6 | — |
| 2 | 4 | HAPPY SHOOTER TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 2 | 3.7 | N |
| 3 | 12 | INVICTUS DRAGON Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 12 | 7.8 | N |
| 4 | 3 | ISLAND BUDDY J McDonald · B Crawford | J McDonald | B Crawford | 10 | 7.2 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 14 | GOOD FORTUNE B/TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 8 | 69.0 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | RELENTLESS PURSUIT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 14 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | VOYAGE BOSS B D B McMonagle · F C Lor | D B McMonagle | F C Lor | 6 | 7.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 13 | ACE CP-/BO1/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 11 | 27.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | JOY CAPITAL J Orman · W Y So | J Orman | W Y So | 13 | 60.0 | 2 |
| 10 | 11 | ALABAMA SONG H A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 9 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | MAJESTIC LIFE TT Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 5 | 253.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | MY TRIUMPH H B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 4 | 36.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 13 | 1 | REAL GENTLEMAN CP/H/TT C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 1 | 126.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 7 | HEALTHY PONY CP1/H1 R Kingscote · C W Chang | R Kingscote | C W Chang | 3 | 127.0 | 8 |
| — | 0 | LEGENDARY IMPACT B/TT · W K Mo | — | W K Mo | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | GOLDEN LUCK B/TT · K L Man | — | K L Man | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HAPPY SHOOTER | 22.9% | 4.36 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | CONRAD PATCH | 19.8% | 5.06 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | INVICTUS DRAGON | 11.9% | 8.39 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | ALABAMA SONG | 8.7% | 11.48 | 10 |
| 5 | 5 | VOYAGE BOSS | 8.5% | 11.79 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | ISLAND BUDDY | 8.4% | 11.95 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | RELENTLESS PURSUIT | 6.9% | 14.49 | 6 |
| 8 | 13 | ACE | 3.6% | 28.05 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | JOY CAPITAL | 2.3% | 43.81 | 9 |
| 10 | 7 | HEALTHY PONY | 2.1% | 48.42 | 14 |
| 11 | 14 | GOOD FORTUNE | 1.6% | 64.51 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | MY TRIUMPH | 1.2% | 82.40 | 12 |
| 13 | 1 | REAL GENTLEMAN | 1.2% | 85.85 | 13 |
| 14 | 9 | MAJESTIC LIFE | 1.1% | 90.57 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 36.5
PLACE
4 16
6 14.5
12 26
QUINELLA
4,6 76
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 30
4,12 65
6,12 48.5
FORECAST
6,4 176
TIERCE
6,4,12 1,001
TRIO
4,6,12 210
FIRST 4
3,4,6,12 198
QUARTET
6,4,12,3 3,851
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST TREBLE
8/11/4 233
8/11/6 1,242
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,11/4,6,12 26,269
4TH DOUBLE
11/4 94.5
11/6 588