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Sha Tin · 2026-03-01 · 06:30

CITI ULTIMA HANDICAP

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 5 ("CITI ULTIMA HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-03-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CONRAD PATCH, ridden by H Bowman and trained by W K Mo, won, with HAPPY SHOOTER second and INVICTUS DRAGON third. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #3 ISLAND BUDDY — Jockey Change

Result

Official · 1:09.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 CONRAD PATCH TT 1:09.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · W K Mo 7 3.6
2 4 HAPPY SHOOTER TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 2 3.7 N
3 12 INVICTUS DRAGON Z Purton · K W Lui 12 7.8 N
4 3 ISLAND BUDDY J McDonald · B Crawford 10 7.2 3/4
5 14 GOOD FORTUNE B/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 8 69.0 1
6 8 RELENTLESS PURSUIT L Ferraris · M Newnham 14 15.0 1-3/4
7 5 VOYAGE BOSS B D B McMonagle · F C Lor 6 7.1 1-3/4
8 13 ACE CP-/BO1/TT M Chadwick · J Richards 11 27.0 1-3/4
9 2 JOY CAPITAL J Orman · W Y So 13 60.0 2
10 11 ALABAMA SONG H A Atzeni · J Size 9 12.0 2-1/4
11 9 MAJESTIC LIFE TT Y L Chung · C H Yip 5 253.0 3-1/2
12 10 MY TRIUMPH H B Avdulla · D A Hayes 4 36.0 4-3/4
13 1 REAL GENTLEMAN CP/H/TT C L Chau · K L Man 1 126.0 7
14 7 HEALTHY PONY CP1/H1 R Kingscote · C W Chang 3 127.0 8
0 LEGENDARY IMPACT B/TT · W K Mo
0 GOLDEN LUCK B/TT · K L Man

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CONRAD PATCH2. HAPPY SHOOTER+0.05L3. INVICTUS DRAGON+0.05L4. ISLAND BUDDY+0.75L5. GOOD FORTUNE+1L6. RELENTLESS PURSUIT+1.75L7. VOYAGE BOSS+1.75L8. ACE+1.75L9. JOY CAPITAL+2L10. ALABAMA SONG+2.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick HAPPY SHOOTER (22.9%) finished 2nd — the winner CONRAD PATCH was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 HAPPY SHOOTER 22.9% 4.36 2
2 6 CONRAD PATCH 19.8% 5.06 1
3 12 INVICTUS DRAGON 11.9% 8.39 3
4 11 ALABAMA SONG 8.7% 11.48 10
5 5 VOYAGE BOSS 8.5% 11.79 7
6 3 ISLAND BUDDY 8.4% 11.95 4
7 8 RELENTLESS PURSUIT 6.9% 14.49 6
8 13 ACE 3.6% 28.05 8
9 2 JOY CAPITAL 2.3% 43.81 9
10 7 HEALTHY PONY 2.1% 48.42 14
11 14 GOOD FORTUNE 1.6% 64.51 5
12 10 MY TRIUMPH 1.2% 82.40 12
13 1 REAL GENTLEMAN 1.2% 85.85 13
14 9 MAJESTIC LIFE 1.1% 90.57 11
HAPPY SHOOTERCONRAD PATCH — wonINVICTUS DRAGONALABAMA SONGVOYAGE BOSSISLAND BUDDYRELENTLESS PURSUITACEJOY CAPITALHEALTHY PONYGOOD FORTUNEMY TRIUMPHREAL GENTLEMANMAJESTIC LIFE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 36.5

PLACE

4 16

6 14.5

12 26

QUINELLA

4,6 76

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 30

4,12 65

6,12 48.5

FORECAST

6,4 176

TIERCE

6,4,12 1,001

TRIO

4,6,12 210

FIRST 4

3,4,6,12 198

QUARTET

6,4,12,3 3,851

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

8/11/4 233

8/11/6 1,242

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,11/4,6,12 26,269

4TH DOUBLE

11/4 94.5

11/6 588