Sha Tin · 2026-03-01 · 07:35

THE CITI HONG KONG GOLD CUP

Race 7

Group 1 GOOD 2000m Course B+2 6 runners

Race 7 ("THE CITI HONG KONG GOLD CUP") at Sha Tin on 2026-03-01 was Group 1 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C S Shum, won, with ENSUED second and WINNING WING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.0 favourite.

Track detail

Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998

Result

Official · 1:59.77

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	ROMANTIC WARRIOR Closed strongly TT 1:59.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C S Shum	J McDonald	C S Shum	4	126 lb	1.0	—
2	5	ENSUED P-/B1 D B McMonagle · J Size	D B McMonagle	J Size	1	126 lb	88.0	4
3	6	WINNING WING Closed strongly H T Mo · K W Lui	H T Mo	K W Lui	3	126 lb	23.0	5-1/4
4	4	MY WISH Closed strongly XB1 H Bowman · M Newnham	H Bowman	M Newnham	5	126 lb	13.0	5-1/2
5	2	VOYAGE BUBBLE CP Z Purton · P F Yiu	Z Purton	P F Yiu	6	126 lb	7.8	7-1/2
6	3	BEAUTY JOY Led early TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz	B Avdulla	A S Cruz	2	126 lb	117.0	11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26

The model's top pick ROMANTIC WARRIOR (45.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	ROMANTIC WARRIOR	45.6%	2.19	1	1.0
2	2	VOYAGE BUBBLE	22.2%	4.50	5	7.8
3	6	WINNING WING	17.1%	5.84	3	23.0
4	4	MY WISH	9.9%	10.11	4	13.0
5	5	ENSUED	2.8%	35.61	2	88.0
6	3	BEAUTY JOY	2.4%	42.40	6	117.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 10.5

PLACE

1 10.5

5 128.5

QUINELLA

1,5 248.5

FORECAST

1,5 232

TIERCE

1,5,6 764

TRIO

1,5,6 296

FIRST 4

1,4,5,6 238

QUARTET

1,5,6,4 3,068

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,4/1,5,6 8,838

All pools (3 more)

6TH DOUBLE

3/1 46

3/5 317

TRIPLE TRIO

4,6,12/2,3,4/1,5,6 129,359

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,6,12/2,3,4/Any Combination 326

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