沙田 · 2026-04-06 · 05:00
SEVERN HANDICAP
第 2場
2026-04-06沙田第2場「SEVERN HANDICAP」，Class 5，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Badel策騎、D J Whyte訓練的SUPREME WINNER勝出。ALWAYS FLUKE獲得亞軍；ROBOT KNIGHT獲得季軍。3.4倍大熱門MAJESTIC DELIGHT跑獲第6名。
場地詳情及賽日變動（4）
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | SUPREME WINNER CP/SR/TT 1:09.44 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 2 | 6.6 | — |
| 2 | 1 | ALWAYS FLUKE B/H/TT H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 8 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | ROBOT KNIGHT B/TT P N Wong · K L Man | P N Wong | K L Man | 11 | 29.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | KING ALLOY B H Y Yuen · K H Ting | H Y Yuen | K H Ting | 7 | 3.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | VIEW ALL THINGS XB/TT C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 6 | 26.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | MAJESTIC DELIGHT XB/TT H Bowman · D Eustace | H Bowman | D Eustace | 3 | 3.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | SHINE BRIGHT XB-/B/TT- M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 9 | 19.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 13 | SMART ENGINEER B/XB M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 10 | 28.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | ORIENTAL SURPRISE B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 14 | 15.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | LUCKY GENERATIONS E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 13 | 65.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | NOBLE FANS B/TT A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 4 | 21.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | CIRRUS SPEED J Orman · D J Hall | J Orman | D J Hall | 12 | 16.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 2 | ICONICAL B/TT2 L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 1 | 13.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 14 | 4 | CIRCUIT DUFFY V M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 5 | 75.0 | 13-3/4 |
| — | 0 | CONCORDE STAR TT · Y S Tsui | — | Y S Tsui | — | — | — |
| — | 3 | YOUNG HORIZON CP/TT1 K Teetan · B Crawford | K Teetan | B Crawford | 12 | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | KING ALLOY | 26.0% | 3.85 | 4 |
| 2 | 5 | MAJESTIC DELIGHT | 18.7% | 5.33 | 6 |
| 3 | 1 | ALWAYS FLUKE | 11.0% | 9.12 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | ORIENTAL SURPRISE | 6.3% | 15.93 | 9 |
| 5 | 12 | SHINE BRIGHT | 6.0% | 16.65 | 7 |
| 6 | 2 | ICONICAL | 5.5% | 18.04 | 13 |
| 7 | 7 | VIEW ALL THINGS | 5.1% | 19.60 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | ROBOT KNIGHT | 3.9% | 25.57 | 3 |
| 9 | 14 | SUPREME WINNER | 3.6% | 27.55 | 1 |
| 10 | 9 | LUCKY GENERATIONS | 3.4% | 29.16 | 10 |
| 11 | 6 | NOBLE FANS | 3.3% | 30.45 | 11 |
| 12 | 3 | CIRRUS SPEED | 3.3% | 30.54 | 12 |
| 13 | 13 | SMART ENGINEER | 2.1% | 46.56 | 8 |
| 14 | 4 | CIRCUIT DUFFY | 1.7% | 57.80 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
14 66.5
PLACE
1 26
10 93.5
14 24.5
QUINELLA
1,14 542.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 500
1,14 171
10,14 285.5
FORECAST
14,1 959
TIERCE
14,1,10 39,585
TRIO
1,10,14 5,917
FIRST 4
1,8,10,14 6,007
QUARTET
14,1,10,8 256,411
全部彩池（另 1 項）
1ST DOUBLE
12/1 260.5
12/14 4,135.5