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Happy Valley · 2020-06-10

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-10 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. INVALUABLE, ridden by V Borges and trained by R Gibson, won by 2, with PARTY TOGETHER second and BEAUTY ANGEL third. The winner led throughout. The 4.1 favourite BEAUTY ANGEL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.49.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 INVALUABLE Wire to wire B 1.49.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · R Gibson 2 6.0 2
2 3 PARTY TOGETHER Closed strongly V/XB A Hamelin · L Ho 5 6.0 2
3 10 BEAUTY ANGEL Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 9 4.1 3
4 2 KING'S MAN Closed strongly V N Callan · P F Yiu 8 8.4 3
5 4 FLAME LILY TT K C Leung · F C Lor 3 16.0 3
5 8 SUNNY POWER M Chadwick · K W Lui 6 14.0 3
7 9 SPEED FORCE Closed strongly XB H N Wong · D J Whyte 7 53.0 3-1/4
8 12 HOME WIN CP T H So · C W Chang 1 34.0 3-1/2
9 6 DRAGON COMMANDER Closed strongly CP J Moreira · D E Ferraris 10 7.9 3-3/4
10 1 SUPER FAST Closed strongly XB Z Purton · K L Man 12 24.0 5
11 5 PERFECT TO PLAY TT B Shinn · C Fownes 4 10.0 6
12 7 PRETTY BAUHINIA B/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui 11 12.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. INVALUABLE2. PARTY TOGETHER+2L3. BEAUTY ANGEL+3L4. KING'S MAN+3L5. FLAME LILY+3L5. SUNNY POWER+3L7. SPEED FORCE+3.25L8. HOME WIN+3.5L9. DRAGON COMMANDER+3.75L10. SUPER FAST+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DRAGON COMMANDER (22.5%) finished 9th — the winner INVALUABLE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 DRAGON COMMANDER 22.5% 4.44 9
2 3 PARTY TOGETHER 15.9% 6.28 2
3 11 INVALUABLE 14.3% 6.97 1
4 7 PRETTY BAUHINIA 7.3% 13.64 12
5 2 KING'S MAN 7.1% 14.14 4
6 10 BEAUTY ANGEL 6.8% 14.65 3
7 4 FLAME LILY 6.7% 14.85 5
8 5 PERFECT TO PLAY 6.1% 16.52 11
9 1 SUPER FAST 5.5% 18.19 10
10 8 SUNNY POWER 3.8% 26.61 5
11 9 SPEED FORCE 2.1% 48.23 7
12 12 HOME WIN 1.9% 53.81 8
DRAGON COMMANDERPARTY TOGETHERINVALUABLE — wonPRETTY BAUHINIAKING'S MANBEAUTY ANGELFLAME LILYPERFECT TO PLAYSUPER FASTSUNNY POWERSPEED FORCEHOME WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 60

PLACE

3 20

10 17

11 18.5

QUINELLA

3,11 229

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 49.5

3,11 77

10,11 44

TIERCE

11,3,10 1,667

TRIO

3,10,11 267

FIRST 4

2,3,10,11 456

QUARTET

11,3,10,2 12,035

1ST DOUBLE

5/3 24.5

5/11 248.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 25.5

A3

A1