Happy Valley · 2020-06-10
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-10 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. INVALUABLE, ridden by V Borges and trained by R Gibson, won by 2, with PARTY TOGETHER second and BEAUTY ANGEL third. The winner led throughout. The 4.1 favourite BEAUTY ANGEL finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | INVALUABLE Wire to wire B 1.49.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · R Gibson | V Borges | R Gibson | 2 | 6.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | PARTY TOGETHER Closed strongly V/XB A Hamelin · L Ho | A Hamelin | L Ho | 5 | 6.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | BEAUTY ANGEL Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 9 | 4.1 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | KING'S MAN Closed strongly V N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 8 | 8.4 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | FLAME LILY TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 3 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | SUNNY POWER M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 6 | 14.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | SPEED FORCE Closed strongly XB H N Wong · D J Whyte | H N Wong | D J Whyte | 7 | 53.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | HOME WIN CP T H So · C W Chang | T H So | C W Chang | 1 | 34.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | DRAGON COMMANDER Closed strongly CP J Moreira · D E Ferraris | J Moreira | D E Ferraris | 10 | 7.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 1 | SUPER FAST Closed strongly XB Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 12 | 24.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 5 | PERFECT TO PLAY TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 4 | 10.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 7 | PRETTY BAUHINIA B/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 11 | 12.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 22.5% | 4.44 | 9 |
| 2 | 3 | PARTY TOGETHER | 15.9% | 6.28 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | INVALUABLE | 14.3% | 6.97 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | PRETTY BAUHINIA | 7.3% | 13.64 | 12 |
| 5 | 2 | KING'S MAN | 7.1% | 14.14 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | BEAUTY ANGEL | 6.8% | 14.65 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | FLAME LILY | 6.7% | 14.85 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 6.1% | 16.52 | 11 |
| 9 | 1 | SUPER FAST | 5.5% | 18.19 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | SUNNY POWER | 3.8% | 26.61 | 5 |
| 11 | 9 | SPEED FORCE | 2.1% | 48.23 | 7 |
| 12 | 12 | HOME WIN | 1.9% | 53.81 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 60
PLACE
3 20
10 17
11 18.5
QUINELLA
3,11 229
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 49.5
3,11 77
10,11 44
TIERCE
11,3,10 1,667
TRIO
3,10,11 267
FIRST 4
2,3,10,11 456
QUARTET
11,3,10,2 12,035
1ST DOUBLE
5/3 24.5
5/11 248.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 25.5
A3 —
A1 —