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Happy Valley · 2020-06-10

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.56
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CURLING LUXURY Closed strongly 1.40.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 5.4 1-1/4
2 0 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE Closed strongly P K Teetan · J Size 2 9.0 1-1/4
3 0 NITRO EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris 5 13.0 1-1/2
4 0 V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/P V Borges · L Ho 3 5.6 1-3/4
5 0 GREEN GENERATION Closed strongly B C Y Ho · C W Chang 8 85.0 2-1/2
6 0 TREASURE CHEST Led early J Moreira · P F Yiu 12 4.3 4-1/2
7 0 DOCTORS DELIGHT H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 9 22.0 4-3/4
8 0 PLIKCLONE Closed strongly B1 B Shinn · D J Hall 6 12.0 6-1/4
9 0 WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT C Schofield · W Y So 11 14.0 7-1/2
10 0 GOLDEN CANNON Closed strongly B/H/XB C Wong · K W Lui 7 37.0 7-3/4
11 0 HAPPY HOUR P-/E/TT Z Purton · C H Yip 4 7.3 8
12 0 E GENERATION TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 10 14.0 9-3/4
— 0 STARLOT A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-10 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CURLING LUXURY, ridden by H T Mo and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-1/4, with MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE second and NITRO EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite TREASURE CHEST finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CURLING LUXURY—2. MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE+1.25L3. NITRO EXPRESS+1.5L4. V CHEVALIERS+1.75L5. GREEN GENERATION+2.5L6. TREASURE CHEST+4.5L7. DOCTORS DELIGHT+4.75L8. PLIKCLONE+6.25L9. WONDERFUL TIGER+7.5L10. GOLDEN CANNON+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick TREASURE CHEST (25.1%) finished 6th — the winner CURLING LUXURY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TREASURE CHEST 25.1% 3.98 6
2 0 CURLING LUXURY 13.2% 7.58 1
3 0 V CHEVALIERS 12.2% 8.18 4
4 0 HAPPY HOUR 8.4% 11.95 11
5 0 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE 7.5% 13.41 2
6 0 NITRO EXPRESS 7.1% 14.03 3
7 0 WONDERFUL TIGER 6.4% 15.73 9
8 0 PLIKCLONE 5.6% 17.92 8
9 0 DOCTORS DELIGHT 5.3% 18.89 7
10 0 E GENERATION 4.5% 22.33 12
11 0 GOLDEN CANNON 3.6% 27.59 10
12 0 GREEN GENERATION 1.2% 82.79 5
TREASURE CHESTCURLING LUXURY — wonV CHEVALIERSHAPPY HOURMISCHIEVOUS SUNDAENITRO EXPRESSWONDERFUL TIGERPLIKCLONEDOCTORS DELIGHTE GENERATIONGOLDEN CANNONGREEN GENERATION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 54.5

PLACE

1 22

3 40.5

12 33.5

QUINELLA

1,12 315.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 128

1,12 99.5

3,12 174.5

TIERCE

1,12,3 6,574

TRIO

1,3,12 1,203

FIRST 4

1,3,5,12 1,095

QUARTET

1,12,3,5 32,279

2ND DOUBLE

11/1 483.5

11/12 113.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 20

A3 —