Happy Valley · 2020-06-10
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-10 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CURLING LUXURY, ridden by H T Mo and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-1/4, with MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE second and NITRO EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite TREASURE CHEST finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CURLING LUXURY Closed strongly 1.40.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 1 | 5.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 12 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE Closed strongly P K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 2 | 9.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | NITRO EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 5 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/P V Borges · L Ho | V Borges | L Ho | 3 | 5.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | GREEN GENERATION Closed strongly B C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 8 | 85.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | TREASURE CHEST Led early J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 12 | 4.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | DOCTORS DELIGHT H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 9 | 22.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | PLIKCLONE Closed strongly B1 B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 6 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 11 | 14.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | GOLDEN CANNON Closed strongly B/H/XB C Wong · K W Lui | C Wong | K W Lui | 7 | 37.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | HAPPY HOUR P-/E/TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 4 | 7.3 | 8 |
| 12 | 11 | E GENERATION TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 10 | 14.0 | 9-3/4 |
| — | 0 | STARLOT A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan | A Hamelin | P O'Sullivan | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | TREASURE CHEST | 25.1% | 3.98 | 6 |
| 2 | 1 | CURLING LUXURY | 13.2% | 7.58 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | V CHEVALIERS | 12.2% | 8.18 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | HAPPY HOUR | 8.4% | 11.95 | 11 |
| 5 | 12 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE | 7.5% | 13.41 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | NITRO EXPRESS | 7.1% | 14.03 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | WONDERFUL TIGER | 6.4% | 15.73 | 9 |
| 8 | 8 | PLIKCLONE | 5.6% | 17.92 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | DOCTORS DELIGHT | 5.3% | 18.89 | 7 |
| 10 | 11 | E GENERATION | 4.5% | 22.33 | 12 |
| 11 | 10 | GOLDEN CANNON | 3.6% | 27.59 | 10 |
| 12 | 7 | GREEN GENERATION | 1.2% | 82.79 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 54.5
PLACE
1 22
3 40.5
12 33.5
QUINELLA
1,12 315.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 128
1,12 99.5
3,12 174.5
TIERCE
1,12,3 6,574
TRIO
1,3,12 1,203
FIRST 4
1,3,5,12 1,095
QUARTET
1,12,3,5 32,279
2ND DOUBLE
11/1 483.5
11/12 113.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 20
A3 —
A1 —