Happy Valley · 2021-05-05
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | NOBLE DESIRE SR/XB 1.09.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Whyte | M F Poon | D J Whyte | 10 | 5.4 | HD |
| 2 | 0 | HAPPY PROFIT TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 7 | 6.0 | HD |
| 3 | 0 | COLONEL V C Schofield · P F Yiu | C Schofield | P F Yiu | 12 | 15.0 | N |
| 4 | 0 | MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 5 | 18.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | CASA KINGDOM XB/B1 B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 6 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 6 | 0 | ORIENTAL AMIGO B K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 11 | 8.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | E HONEY A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 2 | 4.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | IMMENSE HEDGE P/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 8.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | TAKINGUFURTHER V M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 8 | 19.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | BOOMING WELL TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 3 | 12.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | LITTLE BIRD B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 4 | 15.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | ZELUS B-/CP1 H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 9 | 98.0 | 8-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. NOBLE DESIRE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Whyte, won by HD, with HAPPY PROFIT second and COLONEL third. The 4.9 favourite E HONEY finished 7th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | IMMENSE HEDGE | 22.6% | 4.42 | 8 |
| 2 | 0 | E HONEY | 15.0% | 6.66 | 7 |
| 3 | 0 | HAPPY PROFIT | 13.0% | 7.70 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | NOBLE DESIRE | 10.3% | 9.67 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | ORIENTAL AMIGO | 7.4% | 13.51 | 6 |
| 6 | 0 | COLONEL | 7.3% | 13.70 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | BOOMING WELL | 6.9% | 14.49 | 10 |
| 8 | 0 | MASTER ALBERT | 5.9% | 16.86 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | TAKINGUFURTHER | 4.6% | 21.57 | 9 |
| 10 | 0 | CASA KINGDOM | 3.4% | 29.81 | 5 |
| 11 | 0 | LITTLE BIRD | 3.0% | 33.84 | 11 |
| 12 | 0 | ZELUS | 0.6% | 172.46 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 54.5
PLACE
1 40
5 21.5
11 20.5
QUINELLA
5,11 214.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 160
1,11 122.5
5,11 79.5
FORECAST
11,5 391
TIERCE
11,5,1 2,736
TRIO
1,5,11 499
FIRST 4
1,5,6,11 1,176
QUARTET
11,5,1,6 27,365
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 33