Happy Valley · 2021-05-05
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. EXUBERANT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 2-1/4, with WINNING DELAGO second and TAKE WHAT YOU NEED third. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | EXUBERANT B/TT 1.09.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 3.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | WINNING DELAGO H1 C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 5 | 7.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED V-/B2 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 5.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | VIGOR CHAMP B K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 2 | 4.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | ACA POWER H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 7 | 102.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | DEMONS ROCK B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 6 | 73.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | CHAMPION PRIDE TT V Borges · D E Ferraris | V Borges | D E Ferraris | 12 | 12.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | WON BALL TT K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | SHINING ON C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 50.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | SHOWINA B B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 9 | 10.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | STEEL WIN B A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 8 | 13.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | DAY DAY RICH B/TT R Maia · T P Yung | R Maia | T P Yung | 10 | 78.0 | 15-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | VIGOR CHAMP | 24.4% | 4.09 | 4 |
| 2 | 5 | EXUBERANT | 19.4% | 5.15 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 11.5% | 8.68 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | WON BALL | 10.0% | 10.03 | 8 |
| 5 | 1 | SHOWINA | 9.1% | 10.96 | 10 |
| 6 | 12 | CHAMPION PRIDE | 6.5% | 15.29 | 7 |
| 7 | 7 | WINNING DELAGO | 6.2% | 16.03 | 2 |
| 8 | 11 | DEMONS ROCK | 3.8% | 25.99 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | SHINING ON | 3.7% | 26.77 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | STEEL WIN | 3.0% | 32.94 | 11 |
| 11 | 4 | ACA POWER | 1.1% | 88.36 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | DAY DAY RICH | 1.0% | 99.48 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 35
PLACE
2 15
5 15.5
7 27
QUINELLA
5,7 130
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 34
2,7 59
5,7 51
FORECAST
5,7 220
TIERCE
5,7,2 951
TRIO
2,5,7 210
FIRST 4
2,5,6,7 177
QUARTET
5,7,2,6 3,703
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,6,12/2,5,7 14,091
3 PICK 1
A1 21
A3 —
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
12/5 108
12/7 69