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Happy Valley · 2021-05-05

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 9 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-05 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with SMOOTHIES second and SURREALISM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SUNNY STAR Closed strongly 1.39.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K W Lui 2 3.1 N
2 5 SMOOTHIES Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 4 5.1 N
3 6 SURREALISM Closed strongly B T Piccone · D E Ferraris 8 19.0 1/2
4 8 GALLANT CROWN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard 6 10.0 3/4
5 3 TELECOM FIGHTERS Led early C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 5 4.9 1
6 4 SMILING CITY Closed strongly CP/SR2 C L Chau · D J Whyte 9 11.0 2-1/2
7 7 FEARLESS FIRE XB M F Poon · D A Hayes 1 13.0 3
8 1 ROYAL BOMB J Moreira · C Fownes 3 5.5 7
9 9 ETERNAL BEAUTY TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 80.0 17

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUNNY STAR2. SMOOTHIES+0.05L3. SURREALISM+0.5L4. GALLANT CROWN+0.75L5. TELECOM FIGHTERS+1L6. SMILING CITY+2.5L7. FEARLESS FIRE+3L8. ROYAL BOMB+7L9. ETERNAL BEAUTY+17L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick ROYAL BOMB (28.9%) finished 8th — the winner SUNNY STAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 ROYAL BOMB 28.9% 3.46 8
2 5 SMOOTHIES 19.4% 5.15 2
3 2 SUNNY STAR 15.7% 6.36 1
4 7 FEARLESS FIRE 10.0% 9.99 7
5 8 GALLANT CROWN 9.9% 10.14 4
6 3 TELECOM FIGHTERS 9.0% 11.14 5
7 6 SURREALISM 3.9% 25.56 3
8 4 SMILING CITY 2.7% 37.32 6
9 9 ETERNAL BEAUTY 0.5% 197.68 9
ROYAL BOMBSMOOTHIESSUNNY STAR — wonFEARLESS FIREGALLANT CROWNTELECOM FIGHTERSSURREALISMSMILING CITYETERNAL BEAUTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 31.5

PLACE

2 14

5 17

6 49.5

QUINELLA

2,5 76

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 31.5

2,6 104.5

5,6 132.5

FORECAST

2,5 148

TIERCE

2,5,6 1,693

TRIO

2,5,6 594

FIRST 4

2,5,6,8 705

QUARTET

2,5,6,8 10,774

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

11/2 193.5

11/5 52

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 19.5

A2