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Happy Valley · 2021-09-08

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-08 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PIANO SOLO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with MEANINGFUL STAR second and YOO YOO KING third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite ZHAN JIANG ROCKS finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.39.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 PIANO SOLO Wire to wire 1.39.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 7 6.7 1/2
2 1 MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 14.0 1/2
3 2 YOO YOO KING Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A T Millard 8 9.7 1/2
4 7 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly TT J Moreira · W Y So 3 2.8 3-3/4
5 8 BLAZING BEAT XB/CP2 R Maia · C W Chang 2 35.0 4-1/2
6 4 VILLA FIONN Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 12 58.0 5
7 5 EVER LAUGH B/TT A Badel · K L Man 5 17.0 5
8 11 SURE WIN WIN Closed strongly V K C Leung · T P Yung 10 12.0 6
9 10 PEARL CHAMPION B C Schofield · C H Yip 6 4.9 6-3/4
10 12 SUPERB DADDY B-/CP1/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 1 19.0 7-1/4
11 9 INGENIOUS FELLOW B/TT T Piccone · R Gibson 9 206.0 9-1/4
12 3 DREAM WARRIORS CP/H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 11 10.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PIANO SOLO2. MEANINGFUL STAR+0.5L3. YOO YOO KING+0.5L4. ZHAN JIANG ROCKS+3.75L5. BLAZING BEAT+4.5L6. VILLA FIONN+5L7. EVER LAUGH+5L8. SURE WIN WIN+6L9. PEARL CHAMPION+6.75L10. SUPERB DADDY+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ZHAN JIANG ROCKS (29.2%) finished 4th — the winner PIANO SOLO was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS 29.2% 3.43 4
2 11 SURE WIN WIN 16.1% 6.19 8
3 6 PIANO SOLO 11.6% 8.60 1
4 10 PEARL CHAMPION 8.7% 11.44 9
5 3 DREAM WARRIORS 7.1% 14.14 12
6 1 MEANINGFUL STAR 6.4% 15.68 2
7 12 SUPERB DADDY 4.8% 20.85 10
8 5 EVER LAUGH 4.6% 21.77 7
9 8 BLAZING BEAT 4.2% 23.60 5
10 2 YOO YOO KING 3.8% 26.00 3
11 4 VILLA FIONN 2.7% 36.37 6
12 9 INGENIOUS FELLOW 0.6% 157.19 11
ZHAN JIANG ROCKSSURE WIN WINPIANO SOLO — wonPEARL CHAMPIONDREAM WARRIORSMEANINGFUL STARSUPERB DADDYEVER LAUGHBLAZING BEATYOO YOO KINGVILLA FIONNINGENIOUS FELLOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 67.5

PLACE

1 43.5

2 33.5

6 21.5

QUINELLA

1,6 526

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 182

1,6 159

2,6 106.5

FORECAST

6,1 863

TIERCE

6,1,2 6,089

TRIO

1,2,6 1,079

FIRST 4

1,2,6,7 549

QUARTET

6,1,2,7 16,378

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/1 346

2/6 1,292

3 PICK 1

A1 20

A3

A2