Happy Valley · 2021-09-08
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-08 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. JAZZ STEED, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with PARTY WARRIOR second and INFINITY WIN third. The 2.3 favourite INFINITY WIN finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | JAZZ STEED TT 0.56.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 11 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | PARTY WARRIOR H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 4.6 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | INFINITY WIN Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 6 | 2.3 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | JOYFUL WIN B H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 4 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | NOIR RIDER B1 A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 7 | 9.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | REGENCY STAR B- C Schofield · C S Shum | C Schofield | C S Shum | 3 | 67.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | FLAMING PASSION CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 2 | 8.8 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | PACKING CHAMPION H/P H N Wong · L Ho | H N Wong | L Ho | 5 | 43.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | CHEVAL VALIANT XB/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 12 | 33.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | SUPER COMMANDER TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 1 | 11.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | BOOMING WELL XB1/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 9 | 219.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | TRAVEL DATUK B M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 10 | 66.0 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | INFINITY WIN | 30.0% | 3.33 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | SUPER COMMANDER | 13.3% | 7.55 | 10 |
| 3 | 1 | JOYFUL WIN | 9.9% | 10.15 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | PARTY WARRIOR | 9.3% | 10.75 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | FLAMING PASSION | 9.0% | 11.17 | 7 |
| 6 | 8 | CHEVAL VALIANT | 7.3% | 13.75 | 9 |
| 7 | 2 | JAZZ STEED | 7.1% | 14.11 | 1 |
| 8 | 10 | NOIR RIDER | 5.9% | 17.08 | 5 |
| 9 | 9 | TRAVEL DATUK | 2.5% | 39.92 | 12 |
| 10 | 11 | PACKING CHAMPION | 2.2% | 45.34 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | REGENCY STAR | 2.0% | 50.03 | 6 |
| 12 | 12 | BOOMING WELL | 1.7% | 57.59 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 126.5
PLACE
2 30.5
3 16.5
4 13
QUINELLA
2,3 325
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 95
2,4 51
3,4 29.5
FORECAST
2,3 692
TIERCE
2,3,4 2,116
TRIO
2,3,4 234
FIRST 4
1,2,3,4 250
QUARTET
2,3,4,1 9,677
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 36
A1 —
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
9/2 298.5
9/3 17