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Happy Valley · 2021-09-08

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course B 10 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TURIN REDSTAR Closed strongly B/TT- 1.39.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · D J Whyte 2 9.9 N
2 0 GALLANT CROWN B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard 4 3.8 N
3 0 SUNNY STAR Closed strongly C L Chau · K W Lui 6 5.0 1-1/4
4 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/PC/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 3 19.0 1-1/2
5 0 NOTHING NEW Closed strongly XB A Badel · C W Chang 5 5.1 2-1/4
6 0 WEALTHY DELIGHT Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 10 15.0 3-1/4
7 0 ROYAL BOMB Led early K H Chan · C Fownes 9 18.0 3-3/4
8 0 INDICATIVE VOTE TT J Moreira · C S Shum 1 3.9 3-3/4
9 0 NAMJONG PLUS L Ferraris · Y S Tsui 8 45.0 6-1/4
10 0 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B2 H N Wong · C H Yip 7 127.0 15

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-08 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TURIN REDSTAR, ridden by H Bentley and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with GALLANT CROWN second and SUNNY STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite GALLANT CROWN finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TURIN REDSTAR—2. GALLANT CROWN+0.05L3. SUNNY STAR+1.25L4. RIGHT HONOURABLE+1.5L5. NOTHING NEW+2.25L6. WEALTHY DELIGHT+3.25L7. ROYAL BOMB+3.75L8. INDICATIVE VOTE+3.75L9. NAMJONG PLUS+6.25L10. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+15L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick INDICATIVE VOTE (27.7%) finished 8th — the winner TURIN REDSTAR was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 INDICATIVE VOTE 27.7% 3.61 8
2 0 GALLANT CROWN 16.3% 6.12 2
3 0 NOTHING NEW 15.4% 6.51 5
4 0 SUNNY STAR 15.3% 6.55 3
5 0 WEALTHY DELIGHT 9.1% 10.97 6
6 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE 5.9% 16.81 4
7 0 NAMJONG PLUS 3.5% 28.26 9
8 0 TURIN REDSTAR 3.2% 31.21 1
9 0 ROYAL BOMB 2.7% 36.70 7
10 0 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 0.8% 125.43 10
INDICATIVE VOTEGALLANT CROWNNOTHING NEWSUNNY STARWEALTHY DELIGHTRIGHT HONOURABLENAMJONG PLUSTURIN REDSTAR — wonROYAL BOMBHEAVENLY THOUGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 99

PLACE

1 18.5

6 14.5

8 28.5

QUINELLA

6,8 199.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 32.5

1,8 96.5

6,8 64.5

FORECAST

8,6 467

TIERCE

8,6,1 2,714

TRIO

1,6,8 421

FIRST 4

1,6,7,8 958

QUARTET

8,6,1,7 26,979

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,4/1,6,8 9,916

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 42.5

A2 —

5TH DOUBLE

2/6 114

2/8 2,128

TRIPLE TRIO

5,9,11/2,3,4/1,6,8 519,986

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

5,9,11/2,3,4/Any Combination 893