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Happy Valley · 2021-09-08

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course B 10 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-08 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TURIN REDSTAR, ridden by H Bentley and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with GALLANT CROWN second and SUNNY STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite GALLANT CROWN finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 TURIN REDSTAR Closed strongly B/TT- 1.39.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · D J Whyte 2 9.9 N
2 6 GALLANT CROWN B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard 4 3.8 N
3 1 SUNNY STAR Closed strongly C L Chau · K W Lui 6 5.0 1-1/4
4 7 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/PC/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 3 19.0 1-1/2
5 10 NOTHING NEW Closed strongly XB A Badel · C W Chang 5 5.1 2-1/4
6 3 WEALTHY DELIGHT Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 10 15.0 3-1/4
7 2 ROYAL BOMB Led early K H Chan · C Fownes 9 18.0 3-3/4
8 4 INDICATIVE VOTE TT J Moreira · C S Shum 1 3.9 3-3/4
9 5 NAMJONG PLUS L Ferraris · Y S Tsui 8 45.0 6-1/4
10 9 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B2 H N Wong · C H Yip 7 127.0 15

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TURIN REDSTAR2. GALLANT CROWN+0.05L3. SUNNY STAR+1.25L4. RIGHT HONOURABLE+1.5L5. NOTHING NEW+2.25L6. WEALTHY DELIGHT+3.25L7. ROYAL BOMB+3.75L8. INDICATIVE VOTE+3.75L9. NAMJONG PLUS+6.25L10. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+15L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick INDICATIVE VOTE (27.7%) finished 8th — the winner TURIN REDSTAR was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 INDICATIVE VOTE 27.7% 3.61 8
2 6 GALLANT CROWN 16.3% 6.12 2
3 10 NOTHING NEW 15.4% 6.51 5
4 1 SUNNY STAR 15.3% 6.55 3
5 3 WEALTHY DELIGHT 9.1% 10.97 6
6 7 RIGHT HONOURABLE 5.9% 16.81 4
7 5 NAMJONG PLUS 3.5% 28.26 9
8 8 TURIN REDSTAR 3.2% 31.21 1
9 2 ROYAL BOMB 2.7% 36.70 7
10 9 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 0.8% 125.43 10
INDICATIVE VOTEGALLANT CROWNNOTHING NEWSUNNY STARWEALTHY DELIGHTRIGHT HONOURABLENAMJONG PLUSTURIN REDSTAR — wonROYAL BOMBHEAVENLY THOUGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 99

PLACE

1 18.5

6 14.5

8 28.5

QUINELLA

6,8 199.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 32.5

1,8 96.5

6,8 64.5

FORECAST

8,6 467

TIERCE

8,6,1 2,714

TRIO

1,6,8 421

FIRST 4

1,6,7,8 958

QUARTET

8,6,1,7 26,979

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,4/1,6,8 9,916

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 42.5

5TH DOUBLE

2/6 114

2/8 2,128

TRIPLE TRIO

5,9,11/2,3,4/1,6,8 519,986

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

5,9,11/2,3,4/Any Combination 893