Sha Tin · 2026-01-21 · 12:15
TIN CHAK HANDICAP
Race 4
Race 4 ("TIN CHAK HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-01-21 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. NEW FOREST, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by M Newnham, won, with GORGEOUS WIN second and TALENTS AMBITION third. The winner led throughout. The 3.3 favourite TALENTS AMBITION finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | NEW FOREST Wire to wire TT 1:38.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · M Newnham | A Atzeni | M Newnham | 5 | 3.4 | — |
| 2 | 2 | GORGEOUS WIN Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 2 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | TALENTS AMBITION Closed strongly B/XB L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 6 | 3.3 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | SWORD POINT V-/CP2 K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 1 | 4.7 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | SOLEIL FIGHTER XB Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 4 | 3.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | CAPITAL DELIGHT TT2 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 21.0 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | NEW FOREST | 39.1% | 2.56 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | SOLEIL FIGHTER | 36.3% | 2.75 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | TALENTS AMBITION | 11.5% | 8.67 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | GORGEOUS WIN | 5.8% | 17.10 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | CAPITAL DELIGHT | 4.8% | 20.64 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | SWORD POINT | 2.4% | 42.12 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 34.5
PLACE
2 43.5
6 20
QUINELLA
2,6 138.5
FORECAST
6,2 254
TIERCE
6,2,5 704
TRIO
2,5,6 111
FIRST 4
1,2,5,6 108
QUARTET
6,2,5,1 3,075
3RD DOUBLE
10/2 95
10/6 172