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Sha Tin · 2026-03-08 · 09:50

CUMBERLAND HANDICAP

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 11 ("CUMBERLAND HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-03-08 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. WINNING OVATION, ridden by A Badel and trained by A S Cruz, won, with SUPER EXPRESS second and CALIFORNIA WAVES third. The winner led throughout. The 1.8 favourite SUPER EXPRESS finished 2nd.

Track detail & race-day changes (3)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 Hammer 8.65 #10 CALIFORNIA WAVES — Weight Change #11 MATZDEN — Weight Change #7 HAROLD WIN — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:21.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 WINNING OVATION Wire to wire TT 1:21.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · A S Cruz 4 6.8
2 3 SUPER EXPRESS Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · J Size 5 1.8 1-1/4
3 10 CALIFORNIA WAVES Closed strongly B/XB/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 11 93.0 2-1/2
4 8 SUNNY DA BEST Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 25.0 2-1/2
5 7 HAROLD WIN V/XB C L Chau · K W Lui 2 11.0 3
6 14 ALL ROUND WINNER Closed strongly B H Bentley · D A Hayes 14 24.0 3-1/4
7 2 EVERYONE'S STAR H- C Y Ho · F C Lor 12 12.0 4
8 12 RISING PHOENIX Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 6 14.0 4
9 13 AKERMANIS GOLD Y L Chung · D Eustace 1 59.0 4
10 6 SUPERB KID Closed strongly L Ferraris · Y S Tsui 8 44.0 4-3/4
11 5 KING LOTUS Closed strongly CP L Hewitson · M Newnham 7 47.0 5-1/4
12 11 MATZDEN TT Z Purton · J Richards 13 10.0 6
13 9 PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 10 185.0 6-1/4
14 1 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT TT H Bowman · K L Man 9 23.0 8
0 LUCKY CANDY TT · W K Mo
0 DRAGON ON SNOW H1 · D Eustace

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING OVATION2. SUPER EXPRESS+1.25L3. CALIFORNIA WAVES+2.5L4. SUNNY DA BEST+2.5L5. HAROLD WIN+3L6. ALL ROUND WINNER+3.25L7. EVERYONE'S STAR+4L8. RISING PHOENIX+4L9. AKERMANIS GOLD+4L10. SUPERB KID+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick SUPER EXPRESS (34.0%) finished 2nd — the winner WINNING OVATION was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SUPER EXPRESS 34.0% 2.94 2
2 11 MATZDEN 12.4% 8.05 12
3 4 WINNING OVATION 10.6% 9.45 1
4 7 HAROLD WIN 8.2% 12.14 5
5 2 EVERYONE'S STAR 5.5% 18.05 7
6 14 ALL ROUND WINNER 4.9% 20.22 6
7 1 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 4.7% 21.30 14
8 12 RISING PHOENIX 4.1% 24.35 8
9 6 SUPERB KID 3.1% 32.55 10
10 10 CALIFORNIA WAVES 2.7% 36.63 3
11 8 SUNNY DA BEST 2.5% 39.52 4
12 9 PERFECT TEAM 2.5% 40.64 13
13 5 KING LOTUS 2.4% 41.53 11
14 13 AKERMANIS GOLD 2.2% 45.19 9
SUPER EXPRESSMATZDENWINNING OVATION — wonHAROLD WINEVERYONE'S STARALL ROUND WINNERCHIU CHOW SPIRITRISING PHOENIXSUPERB KIDCALIFORNIA WAVESSUNNY DA BESTPERFECT TEAMKING LOTUSAKERMANIS GOLD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 68

PLACE

3 11.5

4 23.5

10 181

QUINELLA

3,4 60.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 30

3,10 224

4,10 700.5

FORECAST

4,3 158

TIERCE

4,3,10 6,872

TRIO

3,4,10 1,566

FIRST 4

3,4,8,10 4,761

QUARTET

4,3,10,8 87,124

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

1/3 10.5

1/4 133.5

2ND TREBLE

9/1/3 104

9/1/4 2,146

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,11/3,4,10 39,517

SIX UP

1,2/6,9/2,6/7,9/1,11/3,4 1,351

2/6/2/9/1/4 100,407

4 [A S Cruz]

2 [A Atzeni]