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Happy Valley · 2026-06-24 · 11:40

MORRISON HILL ROAD HANDICAP

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 3 ("MORRISON HILL ROAD HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-06-24 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FLYING FORTUNE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by W K Mo, won, with MIGHTY STEED second and STAR FIGURE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.6 favourite.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.71

Result

Official · 1:40.02
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 FLYING FORTUNE Closed strongly TT 1:40.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · W K Mo 2 4.6
2 2 MIGHTY STEED CP Z Purton · K W Lui 12 6.3 3/4
3 12 STAR FIGURE Closed strongly CP L Hewitson · J Richards 8 15.0 1-3/4
4 6 TAKE ACTION Closed strongly B B Avdulla · J Size 11 19.0 2-3/4
5 11 NORTHERN BEAST Closed strongly CP M F Poon · D J Hall 1 7.5 2-3/4
6 1 CASA ROCHESTER Closed strongly H Bowman · M Newnham 4 4.7 3-1/2
7 8 NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 6 7.9 4
8 4 VICTOR THE RAPID B-/CP1/TT2 C L Chau · P C Ng 10 58.0 4-3/4
9 3 IVY LEAGUE Led early SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 9 8.7 5
10 9 TURIN WARRIOR XB L Ferraris · K L Man 5 16.0 5
11 10 HEALTHY PONY CP-/H/P1 M Chadwick · C W Chang 3 63.0 5-1/4
12 7 LUCKY TOGETHER H/TT A Badel · F C Lor 7 22.0 7-1/2
0 PODIUM B/TT · D Eustace
0 GOLDEN EMPIRE CP · B Crawford

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING FORTUNE2. MIGHTY STEED+0.75L3. STAR FIGURE+1.75L4. TAKE ACTION+2.75L5. NORTHERN BEAST+2.75L6. CASA ROCHESTER+3.5L7. NOBLE PURSUIT+4L8. VICTOR THE RAPID+4.75L9. IVY LEAGUE+5L10. TURIN WARRIOR+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick CASA ROCHESTER (15.4%) finished 6th — the winner FLYING FORTUNE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CASA ROCHESTER 15.4% 6.49 6
2 5 FLYING FORTUNE 14.5% 6.90 1
3 8 NOBLE PURSUIT 13.6% 7.37 7
4 2 MIGHTY STEED 12.7% 7.90 2
5 3 IVY LEAGUE 12.4% 8.06 9
6 11 NORTHERN BEAST 7.0% 14.37 5
7 6 TAKE ACTION 6.5% 15.32 4
8 9 TURIN WARRIOR 4.7% 21.25 10
9 12 STAR FIGURE 4.4% 22.48 3
10 7 LUCKY TOGETHER 4.2% 23.62 12
11 4 VICTOR THE RAPID 2.7% 37.41 8
12 10 HEALTHY PONY 1.9% 52.33 11
CASA ROCHESTERFLYING FORTUNE — wonNOBLE PURSUITMIGHTY STEEDIVY LEAGUENORTHERN BEASTTAKE ACTIONTURIN WARRIORSTAR FIGURELUCKY TOGETHERVICTOR THE RAPIDHEALTHY PONY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 46

PLACE

2 21

5 15.5

12 45.5

QUINELLA

2,5 156

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 54

2,12 160

5,12 131.5

FORECAST

5,2 203

TIERCE

5,2,12 2,555

TRIO

2,5,12 665

FIRST 4

2,5,6,12 1,615

QUARTET

5,2,12,6 24,538

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,9,11/2,5,12 373,658

2ND DOUBLE

9/2 75

9/5 217