沙田 · 2019-09-01
第 4場
2019-09-01沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Domeyer策騎、A S Cruz訓練的CALIFORNIA GUNGHO勝出，贏出1-1/2。LUCKY GUY獲得亞軍；FALCON TURBO獲得季軍。4.2倍大熱門FALCON TURBO跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT 1.09.42 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Domeyer · A S Cruz | A Domeyer | A S Cruz | 11 | 8.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 10 | LUCKY GUY TT B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 1 | 4.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | FALCON TURBO CP- C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 5 | 4.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | E STAR H K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 12 | 34.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | TOP SCORE B/TT Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 8 | 6.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | LITTLE THUNDER J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 4 | 39.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | BLASTOISE N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 7 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 14 | TELECOM ROCKET K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 10 | 7.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | GINTOKI M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 3 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | WHAT A LEGEND CP/H U Rispoli · K H Ting | U Rispoli | K H Ting | 9 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 12 | BREAK RECORD B/TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 6 | 238.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | BINGO B/TT K H Chan · J Moore | K H Chan | J Moore | 14 | 15.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 7 | MASTER ROMAN M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 2 | 82.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | NICE FANDANGO H/XB R Bayliss · C Fownes | R Bayliss | C Fownes | 13 | 28.0 | 14 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LUCKY GUY | 17.3% | 5.80 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO | 12.6% | 7.96 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | TOP SCORE | 12.2% | 8.18 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | WHAT A LEGEND | 9.2% | 10.93 | 10 |
| 5 | 8 | BLASTOISE | 9.1% | 11.01 | 7 |
| 6 | 14 | TELECOM ROCKET | 8.4% | 11.85 | 8 |
| 7 | 1 | BINGO | 8.4% | 11.94 | 12 |
| 8 | 2 | FALCON TURBO | 8.1% | 12.39 | 3 |
| 9 | 13 | NICE FANDANGO | 5.0% | 19.92 | 14 |
| 10 | 9 | LITTLE THUNDER | 3.0% | 33.54 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | MASTER ROMAN | 2.9% | 34.78 | 13 |
| 12 | 4 | GINTOKI | 1.7% | 57.60 | 9 |
| 13 | 6 | E STAR | 1.4% | 72.17 | 4 |
| 14 | 12 | BREAK RECORD | 0.8% | 120.30 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 85.5
PLACE
2 19.5
3 27.5
10 16
QUINELLA
3,10 209.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 111
2,10 46.5
3,10 90
TIERCE
3,10,2 3,122
TRIO
2,3,10 361
FIRST 4
2,3,6,10 2,837
QUARTET
3,10,2,6 81,776
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,6/2,3,10 28,184
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 25
3RD DOUBLE
5/3 241
5/10 16.5