跑馬地 · 2019-09-25
第 9場
2019-09-25跑馬地第9場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、L Ho訓練的LE TERROIR勝出，贏出2-3/4。ENDEARING獲得亞軍；SHINING ACE獲得季軍。1.9倍大熱門RELIABLE TEAM跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LE TERROIR CP/H/XB 1.09.64 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · L Ho | J Moreira | L Ho | 1 | 4.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | ENDEARING B/TT N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 2 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 11 | SHINING ACE B K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 4 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | JOYFUL UNION K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 12 | 33.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 6 | RELIABLE TEAM Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 10 | 1.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | MR PICASSO B C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 8 | 70.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | SHINING GEM CP1 R Bayliss · P F Yiu | R Bayliss | P F Yiu | 7 | 27.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | FAIRY TWINS TT M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 3 | 63.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | FANTASTIC FEELING L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 11 | 67.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 3 | MOST BEAUTIFUL B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 6 | 35.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | HARRIER JET V/TT M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 39.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | BEST ALLIANCE H/XB C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 5 | 8.4 | 9-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | RELIABLE TEAM | 28.2% | 3.55 | 5 |
| 2 | 12 | LE TERROIR | 28.0% | 3.57 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | SHINING ACE | 15.8% | 6.33 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | BEST ALLIANCE | 5.3% | 19.04 | 12 |
| 5 | 4 | ENDEARING | 4.6% | 21.80 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | JOYFUL UNION | 4.2% | 23.70 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | HARRIER JET | 3.6% | 27.92 | 11 |
| 8 | 3 | MOST BEAUTIFUL | 3.4% | 29.38 | 10 |
| 9 | 2 | FANTASTIC FEELING | 2.2% | 46.19 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | MR PICASSO | 2.0% | 51.17 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | SHINING GEM | 1.5% | 67.31 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | FAIRY TWINS | 1.3% | 74.85 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 41
PLACE
4 25
11 28
12 13.5
QUINELLA
4,12 195
QUINELLA PLACE
4,11 131
4,12 58
11,12 59.5
TIERCE
12,4,11 2,236
TRIO
4,11,12 463
FIRST 4
1,4,11,12 2,428
QUARTET
12,4,11,1 33,978
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 13
A3 —
全部彩池（另 3 項）
8TH DOUBLE
10/4 524.5
10/12 1,175.5
SIX UP
6,8/2,9/6,12/2,3/9,10/4,12 19,479
8/9/12/2/10/12 2,395,005
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
2/10/4 6,573
2/10/12 8,917